Races · house · 2020 · Indiana
house · open seat
Joe Mackey vs Jim Baird
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.7 (10th pctile) to R+21.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.7
80% CI: R +45.7 → R +21.7 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+33.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 160 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet75
85
Endorsements tracked
Joe Mackey75 · 47%
Jim Baird85 · 53%
Total160
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Baird85 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials37
Federal 12State 20Local 4
Elected officials · 37
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (since 2017)
- Joe Biden · Vice President of the United States (2009 to 2017), Senator from Delaware (1973 to 2009) and Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States (2020)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States
- Pete Buttigieg · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 to 2020) and Democratic Party candidate for President of the United States (2020)
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Mark Kruzan · former Majority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives and former mayor of Bloomington
- Steve Scalise · House Minority Whip and U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 1st congressional district
- John R. Gregg · former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Indiana in 2012 and 2016
- Christina Hale · former state representative and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Indiana in 2016
- Cynthia Nixon · actress, activist and Democratic Party candidate for Governor of New York (2018)
- Andy Zay · state senator from Indiana's 17th district
- Brian Buchanan · state senator from Indiana's 7th district
- Chip Perfect · state senator from Indiana's 43rd district
- Eric Bassler · state senator from Indiana's 39th district
- Jeff Raatz · state senator from Indiana's 27th district
- Jim Buck · state senator from Indiana's 21st district
- Joe Donnelly · Senator from Indiana (2013 to 2019) and Representative from Indiana (2007 to 2013)
- Liz Brown · state senator from Indiana's 15th district
- Mark Messmer · state senator from Indiana's 48th district
- Mike Braun · U.S. senator from Indiana
- Phil Boots · state senator from Indiana's 23rd district
- Ron Alting · state senator from Indiana's 22nd district
- Allan Kauffman · Mayor of Goshen, Indiana (1986 to 2015)
- Baron Hill · former U.S. representative from Indiana's 9th congressional district
- Carey Hamilton · state representative
- Chuck Goodrich · state representative from Indiana's 29th district
- Dan Burton · former U.S. representative (IN-05, IN-06) (1983–2013)
- David Wolkins · state representative from Indiana's 18th district
- James Mueller · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (since 2020)
- Matt Pierce · state representative
- Mike Karickhoff · state representative from Indiana's 30th district
- Seth Moulton · U.S. representative (MA-06)
- Steve Luecke · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (1997 to 2012)
- Susan Brooks · U.S. representative from Indiana's 5th congressional district
- Terry Goodin · state representative
- Tony Cook · state representative from Indiana's 32nd district
Other27
Other · 27
- AFSCME · a-Kentucky AFSCME
- Bloomington · former Bloomington city councilman
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen
- Club for Growth
- Complete video of debate · September 22, 2020
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indiana's 2nd congressional district · for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in 2018
- Indiana's 5th congressional district · nd nominee for Indiana's 5th congressional district in 2018
- Indiana's 9th congressional district · candidate for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
- Jennifer McCormick · Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction ( Republican )
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- LPAC
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- Marion County · r., Marion County deputy prosecutor and son of Andrew Jacobs Jr.
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Our Revolution · Southern Indiana
- Right to Life · Indiana
- SMART
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United Steelworkers · Local 12,775
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Association for Justice · PAC
- BOLD PAC
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Equality PAC
- Indiana · State AFL-CIO
- Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio Regional Council of Carpenters
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 364
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 150
- League of Conservation Voters
- Liz Watson · Executive Director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and nominee for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- National Education Association
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Tea Party Express
- United Association · Local 172
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 700
DJoe Mackey75 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials33
Federal 10State 18Local 4
Elected officials · 33
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · President of the United States (since 2017)
- Joe Biden · Vice President of the United States (2009 to 2017), Senator from Delaware (1973 to 2009) and Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States (2020)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States
- Pete Buttigieg · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012 to 2020) and Democratic Party candidate for President of the United States (2020)
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Mark Kruzan · former Majority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives and former mayor of Bloomington
- Steve Scalise · House Minority Whip and U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 1st congressional district
- John R. Gregg · former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Indiana in 2012 and 2016
- Cynthia Nixon · actress, activist and Democratic Party candidate for Governor of New York (2018)
- Andy Zay · state senator from Indiana's 17th district
- Brian Buchanan · state senator from Indiana's 7th district
- Chip Perfect · state senator from Indiana's 43rd district
- Eric Bassler · state senator from Indiana's 39th district
- Jeff Raatz · state senator from Indiana's 27th district
- Jim Buck · state senator from Indiana's 21st district
- Joe Donnelly · Senator from Indiana (2013 to 2019) and Representative from Indiana (2007 to 2013)
- Liz Brown · state senator from Indiana's 15th district
- Mark Messmer · state senator from Indiana's 48th district
- Phil Boots · state senator from Indiana's 23rd district
- Ron Alting · state senator from Indiana's 22nd district
- Allan Kauffman · Mayor of Goshen, Indiana (1986 to 2015)
- Baron Hill · former U.S. representative from Indiana's 9th congressional district
- Chuck Goodrich · state representative from Indiana's 29th district
- David Wolkins · state representative from Indiana's 18th district
- James Mueller · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (since 2020)
- Matt Pierce · state representative
- Mike Karickhoff · state representative from Indiana's 30th district
- Seth Moulton · U.S. representative (MA-06)
- Steve Luecke · Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (1997 to 2012)
- Susan Brooks · U.S. representative from Indiana's 5th congressional district
- Terry Goodin · state representative
- Tony Cook · state representative from Indiana's 32nd district
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- American Association for Justice · PAC
- BOLD PAC
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
- Equality PAC
- Indiana · State AFL-CIO
- Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio Regional Council of Carpenters
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 364
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 150
- League of Conservation Voters
- Liz Watson · Executive Director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and nominee for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- National Education Association
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Tea Party Express
- United Association · Local 172
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 700
Other21
Other · 21
- AFSCME · a-Kentucky AFSCME
- Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen
- Complete video of debate · September 22, 2020
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indiana's 9th congressional district · candidate for Indiana's 9th congressional district in 2018
- Indivisible movement
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
- Jennifer McCormick · Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction ( Republican )
- LPAC
- Let America Vote
- Maggie's List
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Our Revolution · Southern Indiana
- Right to Life · Indiana
- SMART
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United Steelworkers · Local 12,775
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-18Jim BairdH8IN04199 ↗
Receipts
$371.7K
Disburse
$233.2K
Cash on hand
$247.4K
Debts
$170.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$4.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $4.8K
- Barnes & Thornburg LLP · $4.8K
Individuals $4.8K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$4.4K
Electric utilities · $4.4K
- Gaylor Electric, INC. · $4.4K
Individuals $4.4K · PACs $0
Internet$2.8K
Internet · $2.8K
- Sabin Metal Corp · $2.8K
Individuals $2.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
IRWIN R. ROSE CO. LLC$5.6K
SPECTACLE ENTERTAINMENT$5.6K
BARNES & THORNBURG LLP$4.8K
GAYLOR ELECTRIC, INC.$4.4K
SCHAHET HOTELS$3.8K
Joe Mackey
Receipts
$45.2K
Disburse
$43.8K
Cash on hand
$1.6K
Debts
$11.7K
Top industries
Education$250
Education · $250
- Purdue University · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
IU HEALTH$1.6K
CATERPILLAR$500
THIEME & ADAIR CPAS$402
LAFAYETTE ALLERGY$250
PURDUE UNIVERSITY$250
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$33.5K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$33.5K · 100%
Top spender
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WITH HONOR FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $32.1K | 96% | for Jim Baird |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts R
| R | $750 | 2% | for Jim Baird |
| INDIANA REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE, INC. party · boosts R
| R | $652.86 | 2% | for Jim Baird |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-18
Endorsements160 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks