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Races · house · 2020 · Indiana
house · open seat

Pat Hackett vs Jackie Walorski

Safe RR +23.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hackett (D)
99% Walorski (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +23.0 · 80% CI R+35.0 → R+11.0
Actual result R+23.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.0 (10th pctile) to R+11.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.0
80% CI: R +35.0R +11.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+23.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 160 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
75Hackett · 47%
Walorski · 53%85
RJackie Walorski85 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials37
Federal 12State 20Local 4
Other27
Organizations21
DPat Hackett75 endorsers
Most recent · Complete video of debate · 2020-09-22
Elected officials33
Federal 10State 18Local 4
Organizations21
Other21

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-28
Jackie WalorskiH0IN02190 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$803.3K
Debts
$0
Real estate$13.6K
Crop production$11.2K
Computers / electronics$11.2K
Casinos / gambling$11.0K
PEOPLE LINK$19.5K
HERMAN KITTLE PROPERTIES INC.$13.6K
MAPLE LEAF FARMS. INC.$11.2K
NEWTON ENTERPRISES$11.2K
APPLEGARTH DERMATOLOGY$11.2K
Pat HackettOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$885.6K
Disburse
$871.0K
Cash on hand
$15.8K
Debts
$0
Education$54.5K
Lawyers / law firms$5.2K
UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME$37.0K
INDIANA UNIVERSITY$8.6K
AGNES SCOTT COLLEGE$5.6K
THRUN LAW FIRM P.C.$5.2K
BARNES & THORNBURG$4.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.4K · 100%
Top spender
INDIANA REPUBLICAN …
For / against split
For Walorski $1.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
INDIANA REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE, INC.R$1.0K74%for Jackie Walorski
WINNING FOR WOMEN, INC. PACR$352.1926%for Jackie Walorski

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-28
Endorsements160 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks