Races · house · 2020 · Illinois
house · open seat
Marie Newman vs Mike Fricilone
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+48.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+36.1 (10th pctile) to D+60.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +48.1
80% CI: D +36.1 → D +60.1 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+12.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 72 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet72
Endorsements tracked
Marie Newman0 · 0%
Mike Fricilone72 · 100%
Total72
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMike Fricilone72 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other31
Other · 31
- AFSCME
- Bend the Arc
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- Club for Growth
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- FreedomWorks
- Giffords
- Gloria Steinem · feminist, journalist, activist
- House Freedom Fund
- Human Rights Campaign
- Independent Voters of Illinois Independent Precinct Organization
- Indivisible
- J Street
- Leslie Munger · former Comptroller of Illinois
- Marie Newman · 2020 Democratic nominee for Illinois's 3rd Congressional District
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Our Revolution · Will County Progressives
- Planned Parenthood
- Sierra Club
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Sunrise Movement · DeKalb
- Susan B. Anthony List
- Tammy Duckworth · IL
- The New York Young Republican Club
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- United Steelworkers
Elected officials22
Federal 11State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 22
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Joe Biden · 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Dick Durbin · U.S. senator from Illinois
- Kamala Harris · U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Daniel Biss · former Illinois state senator, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2018
- Andy Manar · state senator
- Bill Foster · representative for Illinois's 11th congressional district
- Don Manzullo · former Representative IL-16 (1993–2013)
- Jan Schakowsky · representative for Illinois's 9th congressional district
- Jesús "Chuy" García · representative for Illinois's 4th congressional district
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Kelly Cassidy · state representative
- Lauren Underwood · representative for Illinois's 14th congressional district
- Melinda Bush · state senator
- Mike Frerichs · Illinois state treasurer
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
- Robin Kelly · representative for Illinois's 2nd congressional district
- Sean Casten · representative for Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- AFL–CIO · s AFL–CIO
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Council for a Livable World
- Family Research Council
- Federation of Teachers · Teachers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- J Street PAC
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Nurses Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Teamsters · onal Brotherhood of Teamsters
- United Food and Commercial Workers · (UFCW Local 881)
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
- News-Gazette
DMarie Newman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Mike Fricilone
Receipts
$128.5K
Disburse
$128.0K
Cash on hand
$478.39
Debts
$39.0K
Top industries
Real estate$1.5K
Real estate · $1.5K
- Reitred · $1.0K
- Reited · $500
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Govt employees$525
Govt employees · $525
- City of Bolingbrook · $525
Individuals $525 · PACs $0
Top contributors
ULINE$2.8K
HAGER PACIFIC$2.8K
WIGHT ARCHETECTS$2.5K
REITRED$1.0K
RESIDCO$1.0K
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
- Inside Elections · Oct 15
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
The Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements72 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks