Races · house · 2020 · Illinois
house · open seat
Cheri Bustos vs Esther Joy King
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+10.7 (10th pctile) to D+34.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +22.7
80% CI: D +10.7 → D +34.7 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+4.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 98 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet98
Endorsements tracked
Cheri Bustos98 · 100%
Esther Joy King0 · 0%
Total98
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DCheri Bustos98 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other45
Other · 45
- 314 Action
- AFSCME
- Bend the Arc
- Brand New Congress
- Center for Popular Democracy
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- Club for Growth
- Democratic Socialists of America · Chicago, Illinois, chapter
- DuPage County · Page County board member
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- FreedomWorks
- Friends of the Earth Action
- Giffords
- Gloria Steinem · feminist, journalist, activist
- House Freedom Fund
- Human Rights Campaign
- Illinois District 200 · nt of the Illinois District 200 school board
- Illinois District 90 · of the Illinois District 90 school board
- Independent Voters of Illinois Independent Precinct Organization
- Indivisible
- J Street
- Leslie Munger · former Comptroller of Illinois
- Marie Newman · 2020 Democratic nominee for Illinois's 3rd Congressional District
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Oak Park · chanan, Oak Park Village Trustee
- Our Revolution · Buffalo Grove, Illinois, chapter
- Planned Parenthood
- Population Connection
- River Forest · River Forest Village Trustee
- Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez · Chicago, Illinois alderwoman from Ward 33 since 2019
- Sierra Club
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Sunrise Movement
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Chicago Maroon
- The New York Young Republican Club
- The People for Bernie Sanders
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- United Steelworkers
- renal · nise White, renal technician
Elected officials29
Federal 15State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Joe Biden · 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Evelyn Sanguinetti · former lieutenant governor of Illinois
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative and Republican primary candidate for Governor of Illinois in 2018
- Dick Durbin · US Senator from Illinois
- Elizabeth Warren · US Senator from Massachusetts and former US presidential candidate in 2020
- Kamala Harris · U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida
- Tammy Duckworth · US Senator from Illinois
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Daniel Biss · former Illinois state senator, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2018
- Andy Manar · state senator
- Anna Moeller · Illinois House Representative for the 43rd district
- Bill Foster · representative for Illinois's 11th congressional district
- Cori Bush · activist, organizer, nurse, pastor, Democratic candidate for U.S. Representative from MO-01 ( 2018, 2020 )
- Don Manzullo · former Representative IL-16 (1993–2013)
- Jan Schakowsky · representative for Illinois's 9th congressional district
- Jesús "Chuy" García · representative for Illinois's 4th congressional district
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Kelly Cassidy · state representative
- Lauren Underwood · representative for Illinois's 14th congressional district
- Melinda Bush · state senator
- Mike Frerichs · Illinois state treasurer
- Paula Jean Swearengin · social and environmental activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from West Virginia in 2018 and 2020
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
- Robin Kelly · representative for Illinois's 2nd congressional district
- Sean Casten · representative for Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- Pat Brady · former Chair of the Illinois Republican Party
- AFL–CIO · s AFL–CIO
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Council for a Livable World
- Family Research Council
- Federation of Teachers · Teachers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- J Street PAC
- Jeanette Taylor · alderman for the 20th ward in Chicago City Council
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Nurses Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Teamsters · onal Brotherhood of Teamsters
- United Food and Commercial Workers · (UFCW Local 881)
Newspapers4
Newspapers · 4
- Chicago Sun-Times
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
- News-Gazette
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Michael Shannon · actor, director, and musician
REsther Joy King0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-01-14Esther Joy KingH0IL17083 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$2.3K
Debts
$10.2K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$28.1K
Lawyers / law firms · $28.1K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $21.3K
- Mayer Brown LLP · $6.8K
Individuals $28.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$21.3K
U-LINE CORPORATION$11.2K
UNITED CONTRACTORS MIDWEST$7.6K
MAYER BROWN LLP$6.8K
SEAGA$5.6K
Cheri BustosH2IL17071 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$918.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$20.0K
Electric utilities · $20.0K
- Nextera Energy · $13.0K
- Nextera Energy INC. · $7.0K
Individuals $20.0K · PACs $0
Govt employees$16.2K
Govt employees · $16.2K
- State of Illinois · $16.2K
Individuals $16.2K · PACs $0
Health professionals$8.6K
Health professionals · $8.6K
- Cook Medical · $8.6K
Individuals $8.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
LAURA AND JOHN ARNOLD FOUNDATION$16.4K
STATE OF ILLINOIS$16.2K
SIMMONS HANLY CONROY$13.9K
NEXTERA ENERGY$13.0K
COOK MEDICAL$8.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.6M
D side
$2.7M · 75%
R side
$889.4K · 25%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.6M | 74% | against Esther Joy King |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $479.0K | 13% | against Cheri Bustos |
| FUTURE45 super pac · boosts R
| R | $151.8K | 4% | for Esther Joy King |
| SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $150.0K | 4% | for Esther Joy King |
| AMERICAN LIBERTY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $75.1K | 2% | for Esther Joy King |
| ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR' pac · boosts D
| D | $30.1K | 1% | for Cheri Bustos |
| JOBS COALITION ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $25.6K | 1% | for Esther Joy King |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $115.05 | 0% | for Cheri Bustos |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 15
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
The Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-01-14
Endorsements98 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks