Races · house · 2020 · Illinois
house · open seat
Erika Weaver vs Mary Miller
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.1 (10th pctile) to R+30.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +42.1
80% CI: R +54.1 → R +30.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+46.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 118 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet93
25
Endorsements tracked
Erika Weaver93 · 79%
Mary Miller25 · 21%
Total118
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DErika Weaver93 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other43
Other · 43
- 314 Action
- AFSCME
- Bend the Arc
- Brand New Congress
- Center for Popular Democracy
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- Club for Growth
- Democratic Socialists of America · Chicago, Illinois, chapter
- DuPage County · Page County board member
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- FreedomWorks
- Friends of the Earth Action
- Giffords
- Gloria Steinem · feminist, journalist, activist
- House Freedom Fund
- Human Rights Campaign
- Illinois District 200 · nt of the Illinois District 200 school board
- Illinois District 90 · of the Illinois District 90 school board
- Independent Voters of Illinois Independent Precinct Organization
- Indivisible
- J Street
- Marie Newman · 2020 Democratic nominee for Illinois's 3rd Congressional District
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Oak Park · chanan, Oak Park Village Trustee
- Our Revolution · Buffalo Grove, Illinois, chapter
- Planned Parenthood
- Population Connection
- River Forest · River Forest Village Trustee
- Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez · Chicago, Illinois alderwoman from Ward 33 since 2019
- Sierra Club
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Sunrise Movement
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Chicago Maroon
- The People for Bernie Sanders
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- United Steelworkers
- renal · nise White, renal technician
Elected officials27
Federal 13State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 27
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Joe Biden · 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Evelyn Sanguinetti · former lieutenant governor of Illinois
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative and Republican primary candidate for Governor of Illinois in 2018
- Dick Durbin · US Senator from Illinois
- Elizabeth Warren · US Senator from Massachusetts and former US presidential candidate in 2020
- Kamala Harris · U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee
- Tammy Duckworth · US Senator from Illinois
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Daniel Biss · former Illinois state senator, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2018
- Andy Manar · state senator
- Anna Moeller · Illinois House Representative for the 43rd district
- Bill Foster · representative for Illinois's 11th congressional district
- Cori Bush · activist, organizer, nurse, pastor, Democratic candidate for U.S. Representative from MO-01 ( 2018, 2020 )
- Jan Schakowsky · representative for Illinois's 9th congressional district
- Jesús "Chuy" García · representative for Illinois's 4th congressional district
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Kelly Cassidy · state representative
- Lauren Underwood · representative for Illinois's 14th congressional district
- Melinda Bush · state senator
- Mike Frerichs · Illinois state treasurer
- Paula Jean Swearengin · social and environmental activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from West Virginia in 2018 and 2020
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
- Robin Kelly · representative for Illinois's 2nd congressional district
- Sean Casten · representative for Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- Pat Brady · former Chair of the Illinois Republican Party
- AFL–CIO · s AFL–CIO
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Council for a Livable World
- Family Research Council
- Federation of Teachers · Teachers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- J Street PAC
- Jeanette Taylor · alderman for the 20th ward in Chicago City Council
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Nurses Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Teamsters · onal Brotherhood of Teamsters
- United Food and Commercial Workers · (UFCW Local 881)
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- Chicago Sun-Times
- Chicago Tribune
- News-Gazette
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Michael Shannon · actor, director, and musician
RMary Miller25 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
Other10
Other · 10
- Club for Growth
- End Citizens United
- FreedomWorks
- House Freedom Fund
- Leslie Munger · former Comptroller of Illinois
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The New York Young Republican Club
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Elected officials7
Federal 7State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Don Manzullo · former Representative IL-16 (1993–2013)
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Family Research Council
- J Street PAC
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-22Mary MillerH0IL15129 ↗
Receipts
$700.3K
Disburse
$581.6K
Cash on hand
$118.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$11.0K
Govt employees · $11.0K
- State of Illinois · $11.0K
Individuals $11.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RURAL KING$14.0K
GABY FOUNDATION$11.2K
STATE OF ILLINOIS$11.0K
ARIEL CORP$6.6K
ULINE$5.9K
Erika Weaver
Receipts
$58.7K
Disburse
$32.1K
Cash on hand
$-210.42
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$2.5K
Education · $2.5K
- Lake Land College · $2.5K
Individuals $2.5K · PACs $0
Govt employees$300
Govt employees · $300
- State of Illinois · $300
Individuals $300 · PACs $0
Health professionals$274.13
Health professionals · $274.13
- Wisconsin Physician Services · $274.13
Individuals $274.13 · PACs $0
Top contributors
LAKE LAND COLLEGE$2.5K
RILEY SAFER HOLMES & CANCILA$500
NYHAN BAMBRICK$500
TEACHSTONE TRAINING LLC$500
DCFS$400
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$266.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$266.1K · 100%
Top spender
RIGHT WOMEN PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIGHT WOMEN PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $99.7K | 37% | for Mary Miller |
| ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR' pac · boosts R
| R | $56.7K | 21% | for Mary Miller |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $55.7K | 21% | for Mary Miller |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $44.0K | 17% | for Mary Miller |
| FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.0K | 4% | for Mary Miller |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
- Inside Elections · Oct 15
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
The Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-22
Endorsements118 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks