Races · house · 2020 · Illinois
house · open seat
Lauren Underwood vs Jim Oberweis
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.7 (10th pctile) to D+29.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.7
80% CI: D +5.7 → D +29.7 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+1.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 118 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet93
25
Endorsements tracked
Lauren Underwood93 · 79%
Jim Oberweis25 · 21%
Total118
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLauren Underwood93 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other43
Other · 43
- 314 Action
- AFSCME
- Bend the Arc
- Brand New Congress
- Center for Popular Democracy
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- Club for Growth
- Democratic Socialists of America · Chicago, Illinois, chapter
- DuPage County · Page County board member
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- FreedomWorks
- Friends of the Earth Action
- Giffords
- Gloria Steinem · feminist, journalist, activist
- House Freedom Fund
- Human Rights Campaign
- Illinois District 200 · nt of the Illinois District 200 school board
- Illinois District 90 · of the Illinois District 90 school board
- Independent Voters of Illinois Independent Precinct Organization
- Indivisible
- J Street
- Marie Newman · 2020 Democratic nominee for Illinois's 3rd Congressional District
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Oak Park · chanan, Oak Park Village Trustee
- Our Revolution · Buffalo Grove, Illinois, chapter
- Planned Parenthood
- Population Connection
- River Forest · River Forest Village Trustee
- Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez · Chicago, Illinois alderwoman from Ward 33 since 2019
- Sierra Club
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Sunrise Movement
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Chicago Maroon
- The People for Bernie Sanders
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- United Steelworkers
- renal · nise White, renal technician
Elected officials27
Federal 13State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 27
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Joe Biden · 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Evelyn Sanguinetti · former lieutenant governor of Illinois
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative and Republican primary candidate for Governor of Illinois in 2018
- Dick Durbin · US Senator from Illinois
- Elizabeth Warren · US Senator from Massachusetts and former US presidential candidate in 2020
- Kamala Harris · U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee
- Tammy Duckworth · US Senator from Illinois
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Daniel Biss · former Illinois state senator, Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2018
- Andy Manar · state senator
- Anna Moeller · Illinois House Representative for the 43rd district
- Bill Foster · representative for Illinois's 11th congressional district
- Cori Bush · activist, organizer, nurse, pastor, Democratic candidate for U.S. Representative from MO-01 ( 2018, 2020 )
- Jan Schakowsky · representative for Illinois's 9th congressional district
- Jesús "Chuy" García · representative for Illinois's 4th congressional district
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Kelly Cassidy · state representative
- Lauren Underwood · representative for Illinois's 14th congressional district
- Melinda Bush · state senator
- Mike Frerichs · Illinois state treasurer
- Paula Jean Swearengin · social and environmental activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from West Virginia in 2018 and 2020
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
- Robin Kelly · representative for Illinois's 2nd congressional district
- Sean Casten · representative for Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- Pat Brady · former Chair of the Illinois Republican Party
- AFL–CIO · s AFL–CIO
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Council for a Livable World
- Family Research Council
- Federation of Teachers · Teachers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- J Street PAC
- Jeanette Taylor · alderman for the 20th ward in Chicago City Council
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Nurses Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Teamsters · onal Brotherhood of Teamsters
- United Food and Commercial Workers · (UFCW Local 881)
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- Chicago Sun-Times
- Chicago Tribune
- News-Gazette
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Michael Shannon · actor, director, and musician
RJim Oberweis25 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
Other10
Other · 10
- Club for Growth
- End Citizens United
- FreedomWorks
- House Freedom Fund
- Leslie Munger · former Comptroller of Illinois
- Mark Meadows · current White House Chief of Staff
- Stephen Moore · writer and co-founder of Club for Growth
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The New York Young Republican Club
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Elected officials7
Federal 7State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
- Kevin McCarthy · House Minority Leader and U.S. Representative from California's 23rd congressional district
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator from Texas
- Don Manzullo · former Representative IL-16 (1993–2013)
- Jim Jordan · U.S. representative from Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Peter Roskam · former U.S. representative from Illinois's 6th congressional district
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Family Research Council
- J Street PAC
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-22Jim OberweisH8IL14083 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$90.1K
Debts
$391.0K
Top industries
Crop production$11.2K
Crop production · $11.2K
- Rich Harvest Farms · $11.2K
Individuals $11.2K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$6.1K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.1K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $6.1K
Individuals $6.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
OBERWEIS DAIRY$14.3K
ALARM DETECTION SERVICES$13.2K
ALLIANCE CONTRACTORS$11.6K
THE PEPPER CO$11.2K
SIUE$11.2K
Lauren UnderwoodH8IL14174 ↗
Receipts
$7.9M
Disburse
$7.4M
Cash on hand
$537.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$81.7K
Education · $81.7K
- University of Chicago · $41.5K
- Northwestern University · $15.3K
- Power Rogers & Smith · $15.2K
- George Washington University · $9.7K
Individuals $81.7K · PACs $0
Health professionals$21.5K
Health professionals · $21.5K
- The Permanente Medical Group · $21.5K
Individuals $21.5K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$17.4K
Computers / electronics · $17.4K
- University of California-san Francisco · $17.4K
Individuals $17.4K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$17.0K
TV / movies / music · $17.0K
- The Walt Disney Company · $17.0K
Individuals $17.0K · PACs $0
Govt employees$13.5K
Govt employees · $13.5K
- State of Illinois · $13.5K
Individuals $13.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO$41.5K
THE PERMANENTE MEDICAL GROUP$21.5K
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SAN FRANCISCO$17.4K
THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY$17.0K
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY$15.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.9M
D side
$5.1M · 86%
R side
$799.3K · 14%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.8M | 65% | against Jim Oberweis |
| EDF ACTION VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $792.2K | 13% | against Jim Oberweis |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $600.1K | 10% | for Jim Oberweis |
| AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF NURSE ANESTHETISTS SEPARATE SEGREGATED FUND (CRNA-PAC) pac · boosts D
| D | $342.7K | 6% | for Lauren Underwood |
| INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE pac · boosts R
| R | $129.0K | 2% | for Jim Oberweis |
| AMERICAN COLLEGE OF OB-GYNS PAC (OB-GYN PAC) pac · boosts D
| D | $89.5K | 2% | for Lauren Underwood |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $69.6K | 1% | against Lauren Underwood |
| PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY pac · boosts D
| D | $28.6K | 0% | for Lauren Underwood |
| BLACK PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $19.9K | 0% | for Lauren Underwood |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $344.97 | 0% | for Jim Oberweis |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 15
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
The Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-22
Endorsements118 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks