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Races · house · 2020 · Illinois
house · open seat

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan vs Rodney Davis

Tilt DD +1.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
60% Londrigan (D)
40% Davis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +1.6 · 80% CI R+10.4 → D+13.6
Actual result Rodney Davis ( incumbent ) +8.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 60% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.4 (10th pctile) to D+13.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.6
80% CI: R +10.4D +13.6 · win prob 60%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultRodney Davis ( incumbent ) +8.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 72 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Davis · 100%72
RRodney Davis72 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other31
Elected officials22
Federal 11State 4Local 0
Organizations16
Newspapers3
DBetsy Dirksen Londrigan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Betsy Dirksen LondriganH8IL13150 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$15.9K
Debts
$0
Education$75.9K
Govt employees$25.7K
Lawyers / law firms$11.7K
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS$63.9K
SIMMONS HANLY CONROY$45.2K
MRHFM$34.0K
STATE OF ILLINOIS$25.7K
UIUC$18.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.4M
D side
$123.5K · 1%
R side
$8.3M · 99%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Londrigan $123.5K
Against Londrigan $8.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$4.6M55%against Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.0M36%against Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$610.4K7%against Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$120.0K1%for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
BEND THE ARC JEWISH ACTION INCD$3.3K0%for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 20
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Oct 19

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements72 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks