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Races · house · 2020 · Idaho
house · open seat

Rudy Soto vs Russ Fulcher

← Iowa houseIdaho house →
Safe RR +41.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Soto (D)
99% Fulcher (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +41.5 · 80% CI R+53.5 → R+29.5
Actual result R+39.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+41.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+53.5 (10th pctile) to R+29.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +41.5
80% CI: R +53.5 → R +29.5 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+39.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
2Soto · 100%
DRudy Soto2 endorsers
Most notable · Mat Erpelding · former Idaho House Minority Leader
Organizations1
Other1
RRuss Fulcher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJoe Evans0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-30
Russ FulcherH8ID01124 ↗
Receipts
$583.0K
Disburse
$516.0K
Cash on hand
$102.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$5.0K
Lawyers / law firms$4.8K
Electric utilities$4.5K
Top contributors
ASCENSION MARKETING GROUP$5.6K
ICCU$5.5K
TREE TOP RANCHES$5.0K
HARRIS FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$5.0K
GIVENS PURSLEY LAW FIRM$4.8K
Rudy SotoH0ID01311 ↗
Receipts
$305.2K
Disburse
$305.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$9.2K
Education$1.8K
Health professionals$1.1K
Top contributors
DENTONS US LLP$5.4K
ROSETTE LLP$3.8K
CDI$2.8K
SANTA ROSA RANCHERIA TACHI YOKUT$2.5K
DENTONS$1.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.6K
D side
$1.8K · 68%
R side
$807.85 · 32%
Top spender
7GEN LEADERS
For / against split
For Soto $1.0K
Against Fulcher $750
For Fulcher $807.85
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
7GEN LEADERSD$1.0K39%for Rudy Soto
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$807.8532%for Russ Fulcher
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75029%against Russ Fulcher

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-30
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks