Races · house · 2020 · Hawaii
house · open seat
Ed Case vs Ron Curtis
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+42.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.5 (10th pctile) to D+54.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +42.5
80% CI: D +30.5 → D +54.5 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+44.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 54 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet54
Endorsements tracked
Ed Case54 · 100%
Ron Curtis0 · 0%
Total54
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DEd Case54 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Elected officials36
Federal 16State 19Local 1
Elected officials · 36
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Ben Cayetano · former governor of Hawaii
- Howard Dean · former governor of Vermont
- John D. Waiheʻe III · former governor of Hawaii
- Neil Abercrombie · former governor of Hawaii
- Shan Tsutsui · former lieutenant governor of Hawaii
- Brian Schatz · U.S. senator from Hawaii
- Bernard Carvalho · former mayor of Kauai
- Brad Sherman · U.S. representative
- Cedric Gates · state representative
- Chris Toshiro Todd · state representative
- Chrissy Houlahan · U.S. representative
- Clarence Nishihara · state senator
- Dru Kanuha · state senator
- Ed Case · U.S. representative
- Gil Riviere · state senator
- Hakeem Jeffries · U.S. representative
- Jarrett Keohokalole · state senator
- Jason Crow · U.S. representative
- Joy San Buenaventura · state representative
- Judy Chu · U.S. representative
- Kaniela Ing · former state representative
- Kurt Fevella · state senator
- Maile Shimabukuro · state senator
- Mark Pocan · U.S. representative
- Mark Takano · U.S. representative
- Max Rose · U.S. representative
- Michelle Kidani · state senator
- Mikie Sherrill · U.S. representative
- Neera Tanden · president of Center for American Progress and Hillary Clinton campaign adviser
- Pramila Jayapal · U.S. representative
- Ron Kouchi · President of the Hawaii Senate
- Seth Moulton · U.S. representative
- Stacelynn Kehaulani Eli · state representative
- Stanley Chang · state senator
- Tina Wildberger · state representative
Other10
Other · 10
- AFSCME · FSCME, Local 152
- ALPA · iian Airlines Pilots ALPA MEC
- Akana · 40–50%
- Hawaii Air National Guard · ieutenant colonel in the Hawaii Air National Guard
- Hawaii's 1st congressional district · rector and Libertarian nominee for Hawaii's 1st congressional district in 2018
- Human Rights Campaign
- Kahele · 70–80%
- No data
- Planned Parenthood
- VFW · athan Hoomanawanui, VFW service officer
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Ikaika Anderson · chair of the Honolulu City Council
- ASPIRE PAC
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Congressional Progressive Caucus
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers · Local 625
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union · Local 142
- League of Conservation Voters
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Daily Kos
RRon Curtis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Ed CaseH2HI02128 ↗
Receipts
$606.4K
Disburse
$570.7K
Cash on hand
$116.7K
Debts
$53.2K
Top industries
Securities & investment$5.6K
Securities & investment · $5.6K
- Blackstone · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$4.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $4.3K
- Gibson Dunn · $4.3K
Individuals $4.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$5.6K
LUCKY HOTELS USA$5.4K
GIBSON DUNN$4.3K
THE NATIONAL GROUP$4.0K
LIVMOR, LLC$3.0K
Ron CurtisH0HI01298 ↗
Receipts
$15.5K
Disburse
$15.6K
Cash on hand
$-109.32
Debts
$8.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
MARRIOTT$240.2
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.8K
D side
$4.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF HAWAII party · boosts D
| D | $3.8K | 80% | for Ed Case |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts D
| D | $750 | 16% | for Ed Case |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $230.1 | 5% | for Ed Case |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements54 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks