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Races · house · 2020 · Georgia
house · open seat

Carolyn Bourdeaux vs Rich McCormick

Likely RR +11.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Bourdeaux (D)
97% McCormick (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +11.0 · 80% CI R+23.0 → D+1.0
Actual result D+2.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.0 (10th pctile) to D+1.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.0
80% CI: R +23.0D +1.0 · win prob 3%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 127 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
McCormick · 100%127
RRich McCormick127 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005-2008)
Elected officials80
Federal 39State 35Local 1
Other31
Organizations15
Celebrity1
DCarolyn Bourdeaux0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Rich McCormickH0GA07273 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$29.8K
Debts
$222.0K
Securities & investment$8.4K
GEM SHOPPINGNETWORK$8.7K
JEWELRY STORE$8.4K
APOLLO MEDIA$8.4K
ENVISION$7.8K
ANDERSON FAMILY DENTISTRY$7.7K
Carolyn BourdeauxH8GA07201 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$113.9K
Debts
$0
Education$81.3K
Internet$11.5K
GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY$43.9K
EMORY UNIVERSITY$25.3K
GEORGIA TECH$14.3K
ERNST & YOUNG$12.9K
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$12.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$42.9M
D side
$32.1M · 75%
R side
$10.8M · 25%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Bourdeaux $882.1K
Against McCormick $31.2M
Against Bourdeaux $9.0M
For McCormick $1.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$23.8M55%against Rich McCormick
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$7.4M17%against Carolyn Bourdeaux
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$6.0M14%against Rich McCormick
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$1.6M4%against Carolyn Bourdeaux
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$1.1M3%for Rich McCormick
WOMEN VOTE!D$1.0M2%against Rich McCormick
DCCCD$419.6K1%for Carolyn Bourdeaux
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$407.6K1%for Carolyn Bourdeaux

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Aug 13
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Sep 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements203 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks