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Races · house · 2020 · Georgia
house · open seat

Lucy McBath vs Karen Handel

← Georgia houseGeorgia house →
Safe DD +57.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McBath (D)
1% Handel (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +57.2 · 80% CI D+45.2 → D+69.2
Actual result D+9.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+57.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+45.2 (10th pctile) to D+69.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +57.2
80% CI: D +45.2 → D +69.2 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DLucy McBath0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKaren Handel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-09
Karen HandelH8GA06286 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$41.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$11.4K
Top contributors
RIGHTEOUS GUITARS, LLC$22.4K
VAN EPPS LLC$17.9K
ROLLINS INC.$16.8K
YOUNG CONTRACTING$15.8K
C.W. MATTHEWS$14.6K
Lucy McBathH8GA06393 ↗
Receipts
$8.7M
Disburse
$8.8M
Cash on hand
$139.9K
Debts
$36.8K
Top industries
Education$49.3K
Securities & investment$21.3K
Health professionals$9.5K
Top contributors
EMORY UNIVERSITY$38.7K
BAIN CAPITAL$11.5K
WRT WORLD ENTERPRISES$11.2K
VERIZON$10.7K
GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY$10.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$17.8M
D side
$12.0M · 67%
R side
$5.8M · 33%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For McBath $1.6M
Against Handel $10.5M
Against McBath $5.7M
For Handel $105.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$5.7M32%against Lucy McBath
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$3.8M21%against Karen Handel
DCCCD$3.8M21%against Karen Handel
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$2.9M16%against Karen Handel
BLACK PACD$769.5K4%for Lucy McBath
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$281.6K2%for Lucy McBath
WOMEN VOTE!D$267.5K1%for Lucy McBath
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$141.4K1%for Lucy McBath
NEA ADVOCACY FUNDR$98.3K1%for Karen Handel

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D3
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 20
Inside Elections
Likely D
Oct 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks