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Races · house · 2020 · Georgia
house · open seat

Elizabeth Johnson vs Rick W. Allen

Safe RR +15.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Johnson (D)
99% Allen (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +15.4 · 80% CI R+27.4 → R+3.4
Actual result R+16.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.4 (10th pctile) to R+3.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.4
80% CI: R +27.4R +3.4 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 216 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
89Johnson · 41%
Allen · 59%127
RRick W. Allen127 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005-2008)
Elected officials80
Federal 39State 35Local 1
Other31
Organizations15
Celebrity1
DElizabeth Johnson89 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005-2008)
Elected officials62
Federal 31State 30Local 0
Other14
Organizations12
Celebrity1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-09-30
Rick W. AllenH2GA12121 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$666.0K
Cash on hand
$646.9K
Debts
$1.1M
Crop production$9.3K
Health professionals$7.3K
CLAXTON POULTRY FARMS$9.3K
TAXSLAYER$8.8K
R W ALLEN, LLC$8.4K
UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL$7.3K
BLANCHARD & CALHOUN$7.1K
Elizabeth JohnsonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$72.4K
Disburse
$72.4K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
No industry data.
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.4K
D side
$750 · 12%
R side
$5.6K · 88%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
For / against split
Against Allen $750
For Allen $5.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$5.6K88%for Rick W. Allen
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75012%against Rick W. Allen

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-09-30
Endorsements216 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks