Races · house · 2020 · Florida
house · open seat
Al Lawson vs Gary Adler
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.1 (10th pctile) to D+36.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.1
80% CI: D +12.1 → D +36.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+30.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 272 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet130
142
Endorsements tracked
Al Lawson130 · 48%
Gary Adler142 · 52%
Total272
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RGary Adler142 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials72
Federal 35State 34Local 3
Elected officials · 72
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Wayne Allyn Root · conservative author, radio host, conspiracy theorist, and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Kevin McCarthy · U.S. representative (CA-23), House Minority Leader, and former House Majority Leader (2014–2019) and House Majority Whip (2011–2014)
- Kionne McGhee · Florida state representative from District 117 (2012–present); Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2018–present)
- Lizbeth Benacquisto · state senator and former state Senate majority leader (2012–2014) and Republican candidate in 2014 FL-19 special election
- Steve Scalise · U.S. representative (LA-01), House Minority Whip, and former House Majority Whip (2014–2019)
- Liz Cheney · U.S. representative from WY-00 (2017–present); Chair of the House Republican Conference (2019–present); candidate for U.S. Senate from Wyoming in 2014
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present); Chair of the Senate Small Business Committee (2019–present); candidate for President in 2016
- Tom Emmer · U.S. representative from MN-06 (2015–present); Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (2019–present)
- Bob Graham · U.S. senator from Florida (1987–2005); Governor of Florida (1979–1987); candidate for President in 2004
- Charlie Crist · U.S. representative from FL-13, Governor of Florida (2007–2011), Attorney General of Florida (2003–2007) (former Republican)
- Gwen Graham · U.S. representative from FL-02 (2015–2017); candidate for Governor of Florida in 2018
- Philip Levine · Mayor of Miami Beach, Florida (2013–2017); candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
- Tim Pawlenty · 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former governor of Minnesota (2003–2011)
- Janet Cruz · Florida state senator from District 18 (2018–present)
- Joni Ernst · U.S. senator from Iowa
- Kelli Stargel · Florida state senator from District 22 (2016–present) and District 15 (2012–2016)
- Kent Conrad · U.S. senator from North Dakota (1987–2013)
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky
- Sean Shaw · Florida state representative from District 61 (2016–2018); Democratic nominee for Attorney General of Florida in 2018
- Denise Grimsley · former state senator (2012–2018) and state representative (2004–2012)
- Jeff Kottkamp · former lieutenant governor (2007–2011)
- Jennifer Carroll · former lieutenant governor (2011–2013)
- Aaron Bean · state senator and former state representative (2000–2008)
- Adam Hattersley · state representative
- Anthony Sabatini · state representative
- Ben Diamond · Florida state representative from District 68 (2016–present)
- Betty Castor · education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994); Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Bill Foster · former mayor of St. Petersburg (2010–2014)
- Carlos Guillermo Smith · Florida state representative from District 49 (2016–present)
- Cenk Uygur · political commentator, media host, journalist, and attorney; candidate for U.S. representative from CA-25 in 2020
- Charlie Stone · state representative
- Chuck Brannan · state representative
- Cliff Stearns · former U.S. representative ( FL-06 ) (1989–2013)
- Daniel Webster · U.S. representative from FL-11 (2017–present), FL-10 (2013–2017), and FL-08 (2011–2013); candidate for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Darren Soto · U.S. representative from FL-09 (2017–present)
- Dianne Hart · Florida state representative from District 61 (2018–present)
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- Evan Jenne · Florida state representative from District 99 (2014–present); Florida state representative from District 100 (2006–2012)
- Fentrice Driskell · Florida state representative from District 63 (2018–present)
- Gary Aubuchon · former state representative (2007–2013)
- Greg Steube · U.S. representative from FL-17 (2019–present)
- Gus Bilirakis · U.S. representative from FL-12 (2013–present) and FL-09 (2007–2013)
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen · former U.S. representative from Florida
- J. W. Grant · state representative
- Jason Fischer · state representative
- Javier Fernandez · Florida state representative from District 114 (2018–present)
- Jennifer Webb · Florida state representative from District 69 (2018–present)
- John Rutherford · U.S. representative ( FL-04 )
- Kathy Castor · U.S. representative from FL-14 (2013–present) and FL-11 (2007–2013)
- Keith Perry · state senator and former state representative (2010–2016)
- Kristen Carlson · attorney, Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-15 in 2018
- Lois Frankel · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2017–present)
- Mario Díaz-Balart · U.S. representative from FL-25 (2003–2011 and 2013–present) and FL-21 (2011–2013)
- Matt Caldwell · former state representative (2010–2018)
- Matt Gaetz · U.S. representative (FL-01)
- Michael Burgess · U.S. representative (TX-26)
- Michael Waltz · U.S. representative (FL-06)
- Nancy Soderberg · foreign policy strategist; Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-06 in 2018
- Neal Dunn · U.S. representative (FL-02)
- Patrick J. Kennedy · U.S. representative from RI-1, son of Ted Kennedy
- Paul Gosar · U.S. representative from (AZ-04) (2013–present), (AZ-01) (2011–2013)
- Ray Rodrigues · state representative
- Rick Kriseman · mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida (2014–present)
- Sandra Freedman · mayor of Tampa, Florida (1986–1995)
- Spencer Roach · state representative
- Stephanie Murphy · U.S. representative from FL-07 (2017–present)
- Susan Valdes · Florida state representative from District 62 (2018–present)
- Ted Deutch · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2013–2017), U.S. representative from FL-19 (2010–2013)
- Vern Buchanan · U.S. representative ( FL-16 )
- Wengay Newton · Florida state representative from District 70 (2016–present)
Other38
Other · 38
- Andrew Yang · entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- 314 Action
- Alan Cohn · Peabody and Emmy award-winning journalist and nominee for Florida's 15th congressional district in 2014
- Bo Snerdley · call screener, producer, and engineer for The Rush Limbaugh Show
- Carey Baker · property appraiser of Lake County, Florida (2012–present)
- Club for Growth
- College Democrats of America · Florida chapter
- Defense Intelligence Agency · Intelligence Agency officer
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Frank Polo (write · in), businessman
- Fraternal Order of Police · Lodges 10 and 43
- FreedomWorks
- Gavin McInnes · far-right political commentator and founder of the Proud Boys
- Grady Judd · Sheriff of Polk County, Florida (2005–present) ( Independent )
- High School Democrats of America
- John Hutson · United States Navy officer, attorney, and Judge Advocate General of the Navy
- Juanita Broaddrick · political activist, Bill Clinton accuser, and former nursing home administrator
- Maggie's List
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · businesswoman, conspiracy theorist and Republican nominee for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the 2020 elections
- Michael Johns · former White House speechwriter to George H. W. Bush
- Michelle Malkin · conservative columnist
- Milo Yiannopoulos · far-right political commentator
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- New York Young Republican Club
- Nikki Fried · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–present)
- Planned Parenthood
- Robert J. O'Neill · former U.S. Navy SEAL
- Roger Stone · political consultant and felon
- SEIU
- Sierra Club
- Students for Trump
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Young Turks
- U.S. Marine Corps · .S. Marine Corps veteran
- U.S. Naval Reserve · S. Naval Reserve officer and candidate for Florida's 15th congressional district in 2018 ( running for Florida House of Representatives, District 59 )
Organizations25
Organizations · 25
- AFL–CIO · West Central Florida Labor Council
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Postal Workers Union
- Black Economic Alliance
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Communication Workers of America
- Florida Democratic Party · Disabilities Issues Caucus
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 2294
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 824
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Union of Operating Engineers
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Emergency Medicine (NEM) PAC
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Police Benevolent Association · (PBA) North Central Florida Chapter
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
- Tea Party Express
- Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund
- United Association
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Marianne Williamson · author, spiritual leader, and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Alex Jones · far-right radio show host, political extremist and conspiracy theorist
- Florida Gulf Coast University · ce professor at Florida Gulf Coast University
- Roseanne Barr · actress
- perennial candidate · in), former professor and perennial candidate
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Dana Loesch · former National Rifle Association of America spokeswoman and Breitbart News editor
- Sun-Sentinel
DAl Lawson130 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Other50
Other · 50
- Andrew Yang · entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- 2012 Republican National Convention · epublican National Convention executive
- 314 Action
- 350 Action
- Bo Snerdley · call screener, producer, and engineer for The Rush Limbaugh Show
- Brady Campaign
- Brand New Congress
- Brigade 2506 · na, banker and Brigade 2506 veteran
- Coconut Grove · a-Turner, Coconut Grove village councilwoman
- College Democrats of America · Florida chapter
- Cori Bush · Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st congressional district
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Florida's 18th congressional district · ndidate for Florida's 18th congressional district in 2016, and candidate for Florida's 23rd congressional district in 2018
- Frank Polo (write · in), businessman
- Fraternal Order of Police · Lodges 10 and 43
- FreedomWorks
- Gavin McInnes · far-right political commentator and founder of the Proud Boys
- High School Democrats of America
- Internal Revenue Service · Internal Revenue Service agent
- John Hutson · United States Navy officer, attorney, and Judge Advocate General of the Navy
- Juanita Broaddrick · political activist, Bill Clinton accuser, and former nursing home administrator
- LPAC
- Latino Victory
- Laura Loomer · reporter for InfoWars, conspiracy theorist, and far-right activist
- Maggie's List
- Maria Elvira Salazar · journalist and nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district in 2018
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · businesswoman, conspiracy theorist and Republican nominee for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the 2020 elections
- Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School · Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School
- Michelle Malkin · conservative columnist
- Milo Yiannopoulos · far-right political commentator
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- New York Young Republican Club
- Nikki Fried · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–present)
- Our Revolution · Broward chapter
- Robert J. O'Neill · former U.S. Navy SEAL
- Roger Stone · political consultant
- SEIU
- Sierra Club
- Students for Trump
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Young Turks
- U.S. Air Force · U.S. Air Force veteran
- U.S. Army · n, former U.S. Army sergeant
- U.S. Customs Service · rivate investigator and former U.S. Customs Service pilot
- U.S. Marine Corps · us, technology executive and U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- VoteVets
- perennial candidate · n), retired journalist and perennial candidate
Elected officials48
Federal 27State 17Local 4
Elected officials · 48
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Wayne Allyn Root · conservative author, radio host, conspiracy theorist, and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Kevin McCarthy · U.S. representative (CA-23), House Minority Leader, and former House Majority Leader (2014–2019) and House Majority Whip (2011–2014)
- Kionne McGhee · Florida state representative from District 117 (2012–present); Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2018–present)
- Steve Scalise · U.S. representative (LA-01), House Minority Whip, and former House Majority Whip (2014–2019)
- Bob Graham · U.S. senator from Florida (1987–2005); Governor of Florida (1979–1987); candidate for President in 2004
- Charlie Crist · U.S. representative from FL-13, Governor of Florida (2007–2011), Attorney General of Florida (2003–2007) (former Republican)
- Gwen Graham · U.S. representative from FL-02 (2015–2017); candidate for Governor of Florida in 2018
- Philip Levine · Mayor of Miami Beach, Florida (2013–2017); candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
- Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts
- Janet Cruz · Florida state senator from District 18 (2018–present)
- Joni Ernst · U.S. senator from Iowa
- Kent Conrad · U.S. senator from North Dakota (1987–2013)
- Sean Shaw · Florida state representative from District 61 (2016–2018); Democratic nominee for Attorney General of Florida in 2018
- Ben Diamond · Florida state representative from District 68 (2016–present)
- Betty Castor · education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994); Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Bill Foster · former mayor of St. Petersburg (2010–2014)
- Carlos Guillermo Smith · Florida state representative from District 49 (2016–present)
- Cenk Uygur · political commentator, media host, journalist, and attorney; candidate for U.S. representative from CA-25 in 2020
- Darren Soto · U.S. representative from FL-09 (2017–present)
- Dianne Hart · Florida state representative from District 61 (2018–present)
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- Evan Jenne · Florida state representative from District 99 (2014–present); Florida state representative from District 100 (2006–2012)
- Fentrice Driskell · Florida state representative from District 63 (2018–present)
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen · former U.S. representative from Florida
- J. W. Grant · state representative
- Javier Fernandez · Florida state representative from District 114 (2018–present)
- Jennifer Webb · Florida state representative from District 69 (2018–present)
- John Rutherford · U.S. representative (FL-04)
- Kathy Castor · U.S. representative from FL-14 (2013–present) and FL-11 (2007–2013)
- Kristen Carlson · attorney, Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-15 in 2018
- Lois Frankel · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2017–present)
- Matt Gaetz · U.S. representative (FL-01)
- Michael Burgess · U.S. representative (TX-26)
- Michael Waltz · U.S. representative (FL-06)
- Nancy Soderberg · foreign policy strategist; Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-06 in 2018
- Neal Dunn · U.S. representative (FL-02)
- Patrick J. Kennedy · U.S. representative from RI-1, son of Ted Kennedy
- Patrick Murphy · former U.S. representative from this district (2013–2017) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Paul Gosar · U.S. representative from (AZ-04) (2013–present), (AZ-01) (2011–2013)
- Rick Baker · former mayor of St. Petersburg
- Rick Kriseman · mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida (2014–present)
- Sandra Freedman · mayor of Tampa, Florida (1986–1995)
- Stephanie Murphy · U.S. representative from FL-07 (2017–present)
- Susan Valdes · Florida state representative from District 62 (2018–present)
- Ted Deutch · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2013–2017), U.S. representative from FL-19 (2010–2013)
- Wengay Newton · Florida state representative from District 70 (2016–present)
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- AFL-CIO · North Florida
- AFL–CIO · West Central Florida Labor Council
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Postal Workers Union
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Communication Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · Bold PAC
- Florida Democratic Party · Disabilities Issues Caucus
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 2294
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 824
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Union of Operating Engineers
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Emergency Medicine (NEM) PAC
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Women's Political Caucus
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
- St. Petersburg · attorney and candidate for St. Petersburg city council in 2015
- Treasury · Cyphers, former federal investigator for the departments of Treasury and Labor
- United Association
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Marianne Williamson · author, spiritual leader, and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Alex Jones · far-right radio show host, political extremist and conspiracy theorist
- Anna Paulina Luna · director of Hispanic Engagement for Turning Point USA and U.S. Air Force veteran
- Palm Beach State College · r engineer and Palm Beach State College professor
- Roseanne Barr · actress
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- South Florida Sun Sentinel
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Gary AdlerH0FL05170 ↗
Receipts
$146.9K
Disburse
$146.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$102.0K
Top industries
Electric utilities$1.0K
Electric utilities · $1.0K
- Eddings Electrical Contracting · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BAW JR ENTERPRISE$5.6K
HARTLEY PRESS, INC$3.3K
W.J. SAPP$2.8K
LIVING STONE CREATIONS$2.0K
FAR EAST BROKERS$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$115.05
D side
$115.05 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $115.05 | 100% | against Gary Adler |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 14
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DFiveThirtyEight
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements272 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks