Races · house · 2020 · Florida
house · open seat
Donna Shalala vs Maria Salazar
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 81% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+17.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 81% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.2
80% CI: R +6.8 → D +17.2 · win prob 81%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+2.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetDDonna Shalala0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMaria Salazar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IGerry Nolan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Donna ShalalaH8FL27193 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$169.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Maria SalazarH8FL27185 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.0M
D side
$360.0K · 35%
R side
$676.6K · 65%
Top spender
AMERICAN ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF NURSE ANESTHETISTS SEPARATE SEGREGATED FUND (CRNA-PAC) pac · boosts D
| D | $342.7K | 33% | for Donna Shalala |
| LEADERSHIP FOR A STRONG AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $294.2K | 28% | for Maria Salazar |
| LATINO VOTE FOR AMERICA PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $265.6K | 26% | against Donna Shalala |
| AMERICAN LIBERTY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $44.4K | 4% | for Maria Salazar |
| FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $40.0K | 4% | for Maria Salazar |
| MIAMI-DADE JEWISH ALLIANCE FOR POSITIVE LEADERSHIP super pac · boosts R
| R | $23.0K | 2% | for Maria Salazar |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $12.8K | 1% | for Donna Shalala |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $6.9K | 1% | for Maria Salazar |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Likely DFiveThirtyEight
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks