Races · house · 2020 · Florida
house · open seat
Frederica Wilson vs Lavern Spicer
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+42.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.1 (10th pctile) to D+54.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +42.1
80% CI: D +30.1 → D +54.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+55.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 133 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet133
Endorsements tracked
Frederica Wilson133 · 100%
Lavern Spicer0 · 0%
Total133
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DFrederica Wilson133 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Other50
Other · 50
- Andrew Yang · entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- 2012 Republican National Convention · epublican National Convention executive
- 314 Action
- 350 Action
- Bo Snerdley · call screener, producer, and engineer for The Rush Limbaugh Show
- Brady Campaign
- Brand New Congress
- Brigade 2506 · na, banker and Brigade 2506 veteran
- Coconut Grove · a-Turner, Coconut Grove village councilwoman
- College Democrats of America · Florida chapter
- Cori Bush · Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st congressional district
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Florida's 18th congressional district · ndidate for Florida's 18th congressional district in 2016, and candidate for Florida's 23rd congressional district in 2018
- Frank Polo (write · in), businessman
- Fraternal Order of Police · Lodges 10 and 43
- FreedomWorks
- Gavin McInnes · far-right political commentator and founder of the Proud Boys
- High School Democrats of America
- Internal Revenue Service · Internal Revenue Service agent
- John Hutson · United States Navy officer, attorney, and Judge Advocate General of the Navy
- Juanita Broaddrick · political activist, Bill Clinton accuser, and former nursing home administrator
- LPAC
- Latino Victory
- Laura Loomer · reporter for InfoWars, conspiracy theorist, and far-right activist
- Maggie's List
- Maria Elvira Salazar · journalist and nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district in 2018
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · businesswoman, conspiracy theorist and Republican nominee for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the 2020 elections
- Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School · Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School
- Michelle Malkin · conservative columnist
- Milo Yiannopoulos · far-right political commentator
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- New York Young Republican Club
- Nikki Fried · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–present)
- Our Revolution · Broward chapter
- Robert J. O'Neill · former U.S. Navy SEAL
- Roger Stone · political consultant
- SEIU
- Sierra Club
- Students for Trump
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Young Turks
- U.S. Air Force · U.S. Air Force veteran
- U.S. Army · n, former U.S. Army sergeant
- U.S. Customs Service · rivate investigator and former U.S. Customs Service pilot
- U.S. Marine Corps · us, technology executive and U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- VoteVets
- perennial candidate · n), retired journalist and perennial candidate
Elected officials48
Federal 27State 17Local 4
Elected officials · 48
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Wayne Allyn Root · conservative author, radio host, conspiracy theorist, and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Kevin McCarthy · U.S. representative (CA-23), House Minority Leader, and former House Majority Leader (2014–2019) and House Majority Whip (2011–2014)
- Kionne McGhee · Florida state representative from District 117 (2012–present); Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2018–present)
- Steve Scalise · U.S. representative (LA-01), House Minority Whip, and former House Majority Whip (2014–2019)
- Bob Graham · U.S. senator from Florida (1987–2005); Governor of Florida (1979–1987); candidate for President in 2004
- Charlie Crist · U.S. representative from FL-13, Governor of Florida (2007–2011), Attorney General of Florida (2003–2007) (former Republican)
- Gwen Graham · U.S. representative from FL-02 (2015–2017); candidate for Governor of Florida in 2018
- Philip Levine · Mayor of Miami Beach, Florida (2013–2017); candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
- Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts
- Janet Cruz · Florida state senator from District 18 (2018–present)
- Joni Ernst · U.S. senator from Iowa
- Kent Conrad · U.S. senator from North Dakota (1987–2013)
- Sean Shaw · Florida state representative from District 61 (2016–2018); Democratic nominee for Attorney General of Florida in 2018
- Ben Diamond · Florida state representative from District 68 (2016–present)
- Betty Castor · education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994); Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Bill Foster · former mayor of St. Petersburg (2010–2014)
- Carlos Guillermo Smith · Florida state representative from District 49 (2016–present)
- Cenk Uygur · political commentator, media host, journalist, and attorney; candidate for U.S. representative from CA-25 in 2020
- Darren Soto · U.S. representative from FL-09 (2017–present)
- Dianne Hart · Florida state representative from District 61 (2018–present)
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- Evan Jenne · Florida state representative from District 99 (2014–present); Florida state representative from District 100 (2006–2012)
- Fentrice Driskell · Florida state representative from District 63 (2018–present)
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen · former U.S. representative from Florida
- J. W. Grant · state representative
- Javier Fernandez · Florida state representative from District 114 (2018–present)
- Jennifer Webb · Florida state representative from District 69 (2018–present)
- John Rutherford · U.S. representative (FL-04)
- Kathy Castor · U.S. representative from FL-14 (2013–present) and FL-11 (2007–2013)
- Kristen Carlson · attorney, Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-15 in 2018
- Lois Frankel · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2017–present)
- Matt Gaetz · U.S. representative (FL-01)
- Michael Burgess · U.S. representative (TX-26)
- Michael Waltz · U.S. representative (FL-06)
- Nancy Soderberg · foreign policy strategist; Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-06 in 2018
- Neal Dunn · U.S. representative (FL-02)
- Patrick J. Kennedy · U.S. representative from RI-1, son of Ted Kennedy
- Patrick Murphy · former U.S. representative from this district (2013–2017) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Paul Gosar · U.S. representative from (AZ-04) (2013–present), (AZ-01) (2011–2013)
- Rick Baker · former mayor of St. Petersburg
- Rick Kriseman · mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida (2014–present)
- Sandra Freedman · mayor of Tampa, Florida (1986–1995)
- Stephanie Murphy · U.S. representative from FL-07 (2017–present)
- Susan Valdes · Florida state representative from District 62 (2018–present)
- Ted Deutch · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2013–2017), U.S. representative from FL-19 (2010–2013)
- Wengay Newton · Florida state representative from District 70 (2016–present)
Organizations28
Organizations · 28
- AFL-CIO · North Florida
- AFL–CIO · West Central Florida Labor Council
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Postal Workers Union
- Black Economic Alliance
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Communication Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · Bold PAC
- Florida Democratic Party · Disabilities Issues Caucus
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 2294
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 824
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Union of Operating Engineers
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Emergency Medicine (NEM) PAC
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Women's Political Caucus
- New Democrat Coalition
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
- St. Petersburg · attorney and candidate for St. Petersburg city council in 2015
- Treasury · Cyphers, former federal investigator for the departments of Treasury and Labor
- United Association
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Marianne Williamson · author, spiritual leader, and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Alex Jones · far-right radio show host, political extremist and conspiracy theorist
- Anna Paulina Luna · director of Hispanic Engagement for Turning Point USA and U.S. Air Force veteran
- Palm Beach State College · r engineer and Palm Beach State College professor
- Roseanne Barr · actress
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- South Florida Sun Sentinel
- Sun-Sentinel
RLavern Spicer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IChristine Olivo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Frederica WilsonH0FL17068 ↗
Receipts
$412.6K
Disburse
$321.0K
Cash on hand
$420.6K
Debts
$15.3K
Top industries
Education$7.0K
Education · $7.0K
- Mity Mo Designs · $6.0K
- Miami-dade County School Board · $1.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Health professionals$2.0K
Health professionals · $2.0K
- Aegis Medical Group · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MITY MO DESIGNS$6.0K
OPKO HEALTH INC.$2.8K
RONALD L. BOOK, P.A.$2.0K
AEGIS MEDICAL GROUP$2.0K
ROYAL CARRIBBEAN$1.8K
Lavern SpicerH0FL24205 ↗
Receipts
$39.6K
Disburse
$39.6K
Cash on hand
$64.14
Debts
$22.1K
Top industries
Health professionals$250
Health professionals · $250
- Jackson Memorial Hospital · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
CARRYINGDALOADTRUCKING$250
JACKSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL$250
PARO DECISION SUPPORT$250
Christine Olivo
Receipts
$31.6K
Disburse
$32.9K
Cash on hand
$-956.31
Debts
$0
Top industries
TV / movies / music$500
TV / movies / music · $500
- Warner Bros. · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Top contributors
BRENNTAG$1.6K
WEMLO$975
SURE BETTS LLC$500
WARNER BROS.$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$67.4K
D side
$67.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $43.2K | 64% | for Frederica Wilson |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $20.4K | 30% | for Frederica Wilson |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.5K | 4% | for Frederica Wilson |
| AFT SOLIDARITY pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 1% | for Frederica Wilson |
| WIN JUSTICE super pac · boosts D
| D | $287.68 | 0% | for Frederica Wilson |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 14
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DFiveThirtyEight
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements133 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks