Races · house · 2020 · Florida
house · open seat
Pam Keith vs Brian Mast
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.6 (10th pctile) to R+8.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.6
80% CI: R +32.6 → R +8.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+14.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 152 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet152
Endorsements tracked
Pam Keith0 · 0%
Brian Mast152 · 100%
Total152
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBrian Mast152 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials74
Federal 37State 34Local 3
Elected officials · 74
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Wayne Allyn Root · conservative author, radio host, conspiracy theorist, and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008
- Kevin McCarthy · U.S. representative (CA-23), House Minority Leader, and former House Majority Leader (2014–2019) and House Majority Whip (2011–2014)
- Kionne McGhee · Florida state representative from District 117 (2012–present); Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2018–present)
- Lizbeth Benacquisto · state senator and former state Senate majority leader (2012–2014) and Republican candidate in 2014 FL-19 special election
- Steve Scalise · U.S. representative (LA-01), House Minority Whip, and former House Majority Whip (2014–2019)
- Liz Cheney · U.S. representative from WY-00 (2017–present); Chair of the House Republican Conference (2019–present); candidate for U.S. Senate from Wyoming in 2014
- Marco Rubio · U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present); Chair of the Senate Small Business Committee (2019–present); candidate for President in 2016
- Tom Emmer · U.S. representative from MN-06 (2015–present); Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (2019–present)
- Bob Graham · U.S. senator from Florida (1987–2005); Governor of Florida (1979–1987); candidate for President in 2004
- Charlie Crist · U.S. representative from FL-13, Governor of Florida (2007–2011), Attorney General of Florida (2003–2007) (former Republican)
- Gwen Graham · U.S. representative from FL-02 (2015–2017); candidate for Governor of Florida in 2018
- Philip Levine · Mayor of Miami Beach, Florida (2013–2017); candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
- Tim Pawlenty · 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former governor of Minnesota (2003–2011)
- Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts
- Janet Cruz · Florida state senator from District 18 (2018–present)
- Joni Ernst · U.S. senator from Iowa
- Kelli Stargel · Florida state senator from District 22 (2016–present) and District 15 (2012–2016)
- Kent Conrad · U.S. senator from North Dakota (1987–2013)
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator from Kentucky
- Sean Shaw · Florida state representative from District 61 (2016–2018); Democratic nominee for Attorney General of Florida in 2018
- Denise Grimsley · former state senator (2012–2018) and state representative (2004–2012)
- Jeff Kottkamp · former lieutenant governor (2007–2011)
- Jennifer Carroll · former lieutenant governor (2011–2013)
- Aaron Bean · state senator and former state representative (2000–2008)
- Adam Hattersley · state representative
- Anthony Sabatini · state representative
- Ben Diamond · Florida state representative from District 68 (2016–present)
- Betty Castor · education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994); Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Bill Foster · former mayor of St. Petersburg (2010–2014)
- Carlos Guillermo Smith · Florida state representative from District 49 (2016–present)
- Cenk Uygur · political commentator, media host, journalist, and attorney; candidate for U.S. representative from CA-25 in 2020
- Charlie Stone · state representative
- Chuck Brannan · state representative
- Cliff Stearns · former U.S. representative ( FL-06 ) (1989–2013)
- Daniel Webster · U.S. representative from FL-11 (2017–present), FL-10 (2013–2017), and FL-08 (2011–2013); candidate for U.S. Senate from Florida in 2004
- Darren Soto · U.S. representative from FL-09 (2017–present)
- Dianne Hart · Florida state representative from District 61 (2018–present)
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative (NY-21)
- Evan Jenne · Florida state representative from District 99 (2014–present); Florida state representative from District 100 (2006–2012)
- Fentrice Driskell · Florida state representative from District 63 (2018–present)
- Gary Aubuchon · former state representative (2007–2013)
- Greg Steube · U.S. representative from FL-17 (2019–present)
- Gus Bilirakis · U.S. representative from FL-12 (2013–present) and FL-09 (2007–2013)
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen · former U.S. representative from Florida
- J. W. Grant · state representative
- Jason Fischer · state representative
- Javier Fernandez · Florida state representative from District 114 (2018–present)
- Jennifer Webb · Florida state representative from District 69 (2018–present)
- John Rutherford · U.S. representative ( FL-04 )
- Kathy Castor · U.S. representative from FL-14 (2013–present) and FL-11 (2007–2013)
- Keith Perry · state senator and former state representative (2010–2016)
- Kristen Carlson · attorney, Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-15 in 2018
- Lois Frankel · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2017–present)
- Mario Díaz-Balart · U.S. representative from FL-25 (2003–2011 and 2013–present) and FL-21 (2011–2013)
- Matt Caldwell · former state representative (2010–2018)
- Matt Gaetz · U.S. representative (FL-01)
- Michael Burgess · U.S. representative (TX-26)
- Michael Waltz · U.S. representative (FL-06)
- Nancy Soderberg · foreign policy strategist; Democratic nominee for U.S. representative from FL-06 in 2018
- Neal Dunn · U.S. representative (FL-02)
- Patrick J. Kennedy · U.S. representative from RI-1, son of Ted Kennedy
- Patrick Murphy · former U.S. representative from this district (2013–2017) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Paul Gosar · U.S. representative from (AZ-04) (2013–present), (AZ-01) (2011–2013)
- Ray Rodrigues · state representative
- Rick Kriseman · mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida (2014–present)
- Sandra Freedman · mayor of Tampa, Florida (1986–1995)
- Spencer Roach · state representative
- Stephanie Murphy · U.S. representative from FL-07 (2017–present)
- Susan Valdes · Florida state representative from District 62 (2018–present)
- Ted Deutch · U.S. representative from FL-22, U.S. representative from FL-21 (2013–2017), U.S. representative from FL-19 (2010–2013)
- Vern Buchanan · U.S. representative ( FL-16 )
- Wengay Newton · Florida state representative from District 70 (2016–present)
Other44
Other · 44
- Andrew Yang · entrepreneur and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- 314 Action
- Alan Cohn · Peabody and Emmy award-winning journalist and nominee for Florida's 15th congressional district in 2014
- Bo Snerdley · call screener, producer, and engineer for The Rush Limbaugh Show
- Carey Baker · property appraiser of Lake County, Florida (2012–present)
- Club for Growth
- College Democrats of America · Florida chapter
- Cori Bush · Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st congressional district
- Defense Intelligence Agency · Intelligence Agency officer
- Emily's List
- End Citizens United
- Frank Polo (write · in), businessman
- Fraternal Order of Police · Lodges 10 and 43
- FreedomWorks
- Gavin McInnes · far-right political commentator and founder of the Proud Boys
- Grady Judd · Sheriff of Polk County, Florida (2005–present) ( Independent )
- High School Democrats of America
- John Hutson · United States Navy officer, attorney, and Judge Advocate General of the Navy
- Juanita Broaddrick · political activist, Bill Clinton accuser, and former nursing home administrator
- LPAC
- Latino Victory
- Maggie's List
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · businesswoman, conspiracy theorist and Republican nominee for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the 2020 elections
- Michael Johns · former White House speechwriter to George H. W. Bush
- Michelle Malkin · conservative columnist
- Milo Yiannopoulos · far-right political commentator
- Moms Demand Action
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- New York Young Republican Club
- Nikki Fried · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–present)
- Planned Parenthood
- Robert J. O'Neill · former U.S. Navy SEAL
- Roger Stone · political consultant and felon
- SEIU
- Sierra Club
- Students for Trump
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Young Turks
- U.S. Customs Service · rivate investigator and former U.S. Customs Service pilot
- U.S. Marine Corps · .S. Marine Corps veteran
- U.S. Naval Reserve · S. Naval Reserve officer and candidate for Florida's 15th congressional district in 2018 ( running for Florida House of Representatives, District 59 )
- VoteVets
- perennial candidate · n), retired journalist and perennial candidate
Organizations28
Organizations · 28
- AFL-CIO · North Florida
- AFL–CIO · West Central Florida Labor Council
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Postal Workers Union
- Black Economic Alliance
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Communication Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · Bold PAC
- Florida Democratic Party · Disabilities Issues Caucus
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 2294
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 824
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- International Union of Operating Engineers
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Emergency Medicine (NEM) PAC
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- National Right to Life Committee
- New Democrat Coalition
- Police Benevolent Association · (PBA) North Central Florida Chapter
- Republican Liberty Caucus
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
- Tea Party Express
- Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund
- Treasury · Cyphers, former federal investigator for the departments of Treasury and Labor
- United Association
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Celebrity4
Celebrity · 4
- Marianne Williamson · author, spiritual leader, and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Alex Jones · far-right radio show host, political extremist and conspiracy theorist
- Florida Gulf Coast University · ce professor at Florida Gulf Coast University
- Roseanne Barr · actress
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Dana Loesch · former National Rifle Association of America spokeswoman and Breitbart News editor
- Sun-Sentinel
DPam Keith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IK. W. Miller0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-24Pam KeithH0FL18207 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$4.3K
Debts
$16.9K
Top industries
Internet$9.1K
Internet · $9.1K
- Google · $9.1K
Individuals $9.1K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$4.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $4.5K
- Jones Day · $4.5K
Individuals $4.5K · PACs $0
Education$4.3K
Education · $4.3K
- University of Maryland · $4.3K
Individuals $4.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$9.1K
MIRZA GROUP, INC.$6.0K
TE CONNECTIVITY$5.6K
HOPE CONNECTIONS FOR CANCER SUPPORT$5.6K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$5.6K
K. W. Miller
Receipts
$0
Disburse
$0
Cash on hand
$100
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$530.3K
D side
$505.3K · 95%
R side
$25.0K · 5%
Top spender
SOMOS VOTANTES
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOMOS VOTANTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $301.1K | 57% | for Pam Keith |
| WIN JUSTICE super pac · boosts D
| D | $105.8K | 20% | for Pam Keith |
| UNITE HERE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $65.9K | 12% | for Pam Keith |
| VALOR PROJECT super pac · boosts R
| R | $25.0K | 5% | against Pam Keith |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.3K | 2% | for Pam Keith |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 18
- Inside Elections · Oct 15
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 19
The Cook Political Report
Likely RFiveThirtyEight
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-24
Endorsements152 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks