NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Florida
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Margaret Good vs Vern Buchanan

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Likely RR +11.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Good (D)
97% Buchanan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +11.1 · 80% CI R+23.1 → D+0.9
Actual result R+11.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.1 (10th pctile) to D+0.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.1
80% CI: R +23.1 → D +0.9 · win prob 3%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RVern Buchanan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMargaret Good0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Vern BuchananH6FL13148 ↗
Receipts
$3.6M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$73.1K
Debts
$625.0K
Top industries
Electric utilities$11.1K
Casinos / gambling$11.0K
Lawyers / law firms$10.8K
Top contributors
UROLOGY CENTERS OF ALABAMA$11.4K
TACO BELL$11.2K
FLORIDA CRYSTALS$11.2K
THE SEMBLER COMPANY$11.2K
NEXTERA ENERGY$11.1K
Margaret GoodH0FL16094 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$4.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.5K
Lawyers / law firms$5.6K
Top contributors
MATTHEWS EASTMOORE$11.1K
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA$6.5K
MAHER LAW FIRM$5.6K
SAGE$5.6K
SHEEX$5.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$114.3K
D side
$102.2K · 89%
R side
$12.1K · 11%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Good $13.2K
Against Buchanan $89.0K
For Buchanan $12.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$60.0K53%against Vern Buchanan
REINVESTING IN AMERICA 2020D$28.3K25%against Vern Buchanan
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDR$8.1K7%for Vern Buchanan
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$5.9K5%for Margaret Good
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$4.0K4%for Vern Buchanan
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$3.7K3%for Margaret Good
PROTECT THE VOTED$2.9K3%for Margaret Good
JDCA PACD$1.2K1%for Margaret Good
WIN JUSTICED$149.680%for Margaret Good

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R4
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jul 1
FiveThirtyEight
Likely R
Oct 14
Inside Elections
Likely R
Aug 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks