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Races · house · 2020 · Colorado
house · open seat

Ike McCorkle vs Ken Buck

← Colorado houseColorado house →
Safe RR +20.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% McCorkle (D)
99% Buck (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +20.4 · 80% CI R+32.4 → R+8.4
Actual result R+23.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.4 (10th pctile) to R+8.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.4
80% CI: R +32.4 → R +8.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+23.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 155 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
79McCorkle · 51%
Buck · 49%76
DIke McCorkle79 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials44
Federal 12State 23Local 6
Other19
Organizations11
Newspapers5
RKen Buck76 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials44
Federal 8State 27Local 6
Other17
Organizations10
Newspapers5
LBruce Griffith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILaura Ireland0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Ken BuckH4CO04090 ↗
Receipts
$479.7K
Disburse
$540.1K
Cash on hand
$290.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ike McCorkleH0CO04197 ↗
Receipts
$382.9K
Disburse
$385.4K
Cash on hand
$-4,204.73
Debts
$5.5K
Top industries
Internet$1.0K
Education$1.0K
Top contributors
DAVITA$4.9K
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL$2.8K
EXPEDIA$2.8K
JEPPESEN$1.6K
EXCELL FUND LLC$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$972.47
D side
$240.1 · 25%
R side
$732.37 · 75%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND
For / against split
For McCorkle $125.05
Against Buck $115.05
For Buck $732.37
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$732.3775%for Ken Buck
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.124%against Ken Buck
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Ike McCorkle

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements155 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks