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Races · house · 2020 · Colorado
house · open seat

Diane Mitsch Bush vs Lauren Boebert

Likely RR +13.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% Bush (D)
98% Boebert (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.0 · 80% CI R+25.0 → R+1.0
Actual result R+6.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.0 (10th pctile) to R+1.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.0
80% CI: R +25.0R +1.0 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 77 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Boebert · 100%77
RLauren Boebert77 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials44
Federal 8State 27Local 6
Other18
Organizations10
Newspapers5
DDiane Mitsch Bush0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Diane Mitsch BushH8CO03192 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$5.0M
Cash on hand
$28.5K
Debts
$1.0K
Internet$69.9K
Computers / electronics$51.6K
Education$17.1K
Govt employees$13.8K
Securities & investment$6.6K
GOOGLE$44.6K
APPLE$33.9K
FACEBOOK$14.1K
STATE OF COLORADO$13.8K
SKI TIME SQUARE MANAGEMENT$11.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.3M
D side
$513.0K · 6%
R side
$7.8M · 94%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
For / against split
For Bush $513.0K
Against Bush $7.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$3.3M40%against Diane Mitsch Bush
NRCCR$2.6M32%against Diane Mitsch Bush
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.7M21%against Diane Mitsch Bush
FAIR SHARE ACTIOND$219.1K3%for Diane Mitsch Bush
NATIONAL IMMIGRANT VICTORY FUNDD$167.9K2%for Diane Mitsch Bush

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R2
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Sep 28
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements77 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks