Races · house · 2020 · Colorado
house · open seat
Joe Neguse vs Charles Winn
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+20) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+45.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+33.8 (10th pctile) to D+57.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +45.8
80% CI: D +33.8 → D +57.8 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+26.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 155 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet79
76
Endorsements tracked
Joe Neguse79 · 51%
Charles Winn76 · 49%
Total155
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJoe Neguse79 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials44
Federal 12State 23Local 6
Elected officials · 44
- Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Barbara O'Brien · vice president of the Denver Board of Education and former lieutenant governor of Colorado
- Joe Biden · former vice president and Democratic nominee for the 2020 United States presidential election
- Pueblo, Colorado · Colorado City Council Vice President
- KC Becker · Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives and former House Majority Leader
- Mike Callihan · former lieutenant governor of Colorado (1987-94)
- Jerry Sonnenberg · state senator from the 1st district (2015–)
- Ken Salazar · former United States Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Senator from Colorado
- Mark Udall · former U.S. senator from Colorado (2009–2015) and former U.S. Representative (CO-02) (1999–2009)
- Owen Hill · former state senator from the 10th district (2013–2021)
- Ray Scott · state senator from the 7th district (2015–)
- Phil Weiser · Colorado Attorney General
- Bernie Buescher · former Colorado Secretary of State (2009-11) and former state representative
- Gail Schwartz · former state senator
- John Hickenlooper · former governor and 2020 candidate for Senate
- 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado · election in Colorado candidate
- Aspen · Ireland, former mayor of Aspen
- Basalt · ane, mayor of Basalt
- Carbondale · dson, mayor of Carbondale
- Claire Levy · former state representative
- Colorado's 1st congressional district · an, motivational speaker, and nominee for Colorado's 1st congressional district in 2016 and 2018 (Ran for CO-07 )
- Crested Butte · mayor pro-tempore of Crested Butte
- Daneya Esgar · state representative
- Durango · ookie, mayor of Durango
- Dylan Roberts · state representative
- Edie Hooton · state representative
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative from NY-21
- Federico Peña · former United States Secretary of Energy, former United States Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Denver
- Janet Buckner · state representative and Speaker Pro Tempore
- Janice Rich · state representative from the 55th district (2019–)
- Joann Ginal · state senator and former state representative
- Joe Salazar · former state representative
- John Salazar · former U.S. representative (CO-03) (2005-11) and former Agriculture Commissioner of Colorado (2011-14)
- Ken Buck · U.S. representative from CO-04
- Matt Soper · state representative from the 54th district (2019–)
- Michael Bennet · Senator
- Mike Coffman · former U.S. representative and mayor of Aurora
- Mike McLachlan · former state representative and former Colorado Solicitor General
- Millie Hamner · former state representative
- Montrose · man, former mayor of Montrose
- Pete Lee · state senator and former state representative
- Sal Pace · former state representative
- state representative · lley, former state representative
Other19
Other · 19
- Alamosa County Commissioner · ty Commissioner
- Archuleta County Commissioner · ounty Commissioner
- Costilla County Commissioner · ounty Commissioner
- Dan Baer · former United States Ambassador to the OSCE (2013-17)
- Democracy for America
- Eagle County Commissioner · le County Commissioner
- Giffords
- Gunnison County Commissioner · on County Commissioner
- Huerfano County Commissioner · unty Commissioner
- Indivisible
- La Plata County Commissioner · y Commissioner
- Pitkin County Commissioner · Commissioner
- Pueblo Chieftain
- Pueblo County Commissioner · nty Commissioner
- Routt County Commissioner · outt County Commissioner
- San Luis · e Aragon, former San Luis Town Councilwoman
- San Miguel County · Miguel County Sheriff
- Sierra Club
- UNITE HERE · Local 23
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- AFL-CIO · o AFL-CIO
- American Postal Workers Union · Denver Metro Area Local
- Colorado Republican Party · man of the Colorado Republican Party
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 1
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Committee for an Effective Congress
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers Union · Local 7
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Aspen Daily News
- Denver Post
- Durango Herald
- Grand Junction Daily Sentinel · (suggested)
- The Durango Herald
RCharles Winn76 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials44
Federal 8State 27Local 6
Elected officials · 44
- Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Tom Tancredo · former U.S. representative from CO-06, candidate for Governor of Colorado in 2010, candidate for President of the United States in 2008
- Pueblo, Colorado · Colorado City Council Vice President
- KC Becker · Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives and former House Majority Leader
- Mike Callihan · former lieutenant governor of Colorado (1987-94)
- Jerry Sonnenberg · state senator from the 1st district (2015–)
- Ken Salazar · former United States Secretary of Interior (2009–2013), former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2005-09), and former Colorado Attorney General (1999–2005)
- Kerry Donovan · state Senator from the 5th District
- Mark Udall · former U.S. senator from Colorado (2009–2015) and former U.S. Representative (CO-02) (1999–2009)
- Owen Hill · former state senator from the 10th district (2013–2021)
- Ray Scott · state senator from the 7th district (2015–)
- Phil Weiser · Colorado Attorney General
- Bernie Buescher · former Colorado Secretary of State (2009-11) and former state representative
- Gail Schwartz · former state senator
- John Hickenlooper · former governor and 2020 candidate for Senate
- 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado · election in Colorado candidate
- Aspen · Ireland, former mayor of Aspen
- Basalt · ane, mayor of Basalt
- Carbondale · dson, mayor of Carbondale
- Claire Levy · former state representative
- Crested Butte · mayor pro-tempore of Crested Butte
- Daneya Esgar · state representative
- Diane Mitsch Bush · former state representative and nominee for Colorado's 3rd congressional district in 2018
- Donald Valdez · state representative
- Durango · ookie, mayor of Durango
- Dylan Roberts · state representative
- Edie Hooton · state representative
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. representative from NY-21
- Janet Buckner · state representative and Speaker Pro Tempore
- Janice Rich · state representative from the 55th district (2019–)
- Joann Ginal · state senator and former state representative
- Joe Salazar · former state representative
- John Salazar · former U.S. representative (CO-03) (2005-11) and former Agriculture Commissioner of Colorado (2011-14)
- Ken Buck · U.S. representative from CO-04
- Leroy Garcia · president of the Colorado Senate
- Matt Soper · state representative from the 54th district (2019–)
- Michael Bennet · Senator
- Mike McLachlan · former state representative and former Colorado Solicitor General
- Millie Hamner · former state representative
- Montrose · man, former mayor of Montrose
- Pete Lee · state senator and former state representative
- Sal Pace · former state representative
- state representative · lley, former state representative
Other17
Other · 17
- Alamosa County Commissioner · ty Commissioner
- Archuleta County Commissioner · ounty Commissioner
- Costilla County Commissioner · ounty Commissioner
- Dan Baer · former United States Ambassador to the OSCE (2013-17)
- Eagle County Commissioner · le County Commissioner
- Giffords
- Gunnison County Commissioner · on County Commissioner
- Huerfano County Commissioner · unty Commissioner
- La Plata County Commissioner · y Commissioner
- Pitkin County Commissioner · Commissioner
- Pueblo Chieftain
- Pueblo County Commissioner · nty Commissioner
- Routt County Commissioner · outt County Commissioner
- San Luis · e Aragon, former San Luis Town Councilwoman
- San Miguel County · Miguel County Sheriff
- Sierra Club
- UNITE HERE · Local 23
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- AFL-CIO · o AFL-CIO
- American Postal Workers Union · Denver Metro Area Local
- Club for Growth PAC
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 1
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee for an Effective Congress
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Planned Parenthood · Action Fund
- Tea Party Express
- United Food and Commercial Workers Union · Local 7
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Aspen Daily News
- Denver Post
- Durango Herald
- Grand Junction Daily Sentinel · (suggested)
- The Durango Herald
LThom Atkinson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IGary Swing0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Joe NeguseH8CO02160 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$690.0K
Cash on hand
$893.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$16.1K
Lawyers / law firms · $16.1K
- Hogan Lovells · $9.8K
- Holland & Hart LLP · $8.5K
- Vicente Sederberg LLP · $7.6K
Individuals $16.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BROWNSTEIN HYATT FARBER SCHRECK$20.6K
HOLLAND & HART$15.8K
HOGAN LOVELLS$9.8K
HOLLAND & HART LLP$8.5K
DISH NETWORK$8.4K
Charles WinnH0CO02225 ↗
Receipts
$100.5K
Disburse
$100.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$1.0K
Health professionals · $1.0K
- Amd INC · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$500
Oil & gas · $500
- Action Gas INC · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Real estate$450
Real estate · $450
- Colorado Landmark Realtors · $450
Individuals $450 · PACs $0
Top contributors
ADA TECHNOLOGIES INC$1.2K
AMD INC$1.0K
WINN FOR COLORADO$500
ACTION GAS INC$500
SMARTWOOL$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.9K
D side
$12.9K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $9.9K | 77% | for Joe Neguse |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $1.7K | 13% | for Joe Neguse |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts D
| D | $750 | 6% | for Joe Neguse |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $566.04 | 4% | for Joe Neguse |
| ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $24.43 | 0% | for Joe Neguse |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 1
- Inside Elections · Jun 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements155 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks