Races · house · 2020 · California

house · open seat

Jerry McNerney vs Antonio C. "Tony" Amador

← California house California house →

Safe DD +17.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McNerney (D)
1% Amador (R)
Win probability
Jerry McNerney99% (D)
Antonio C. "Tony" Amador1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +17.6
80% CID+5.6 → D+29.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +17.6 · 80% CI D+5.6 → D+29.6
Actual result D+15.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.6 (10th pctile) to D+29.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +17.6

80% CI: D +5.6 → D +29.6 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+15.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJerry McNerney0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAntonio C. "Tony" Amador0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Jerry McNerneyH4CA11081 ↗

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$234.2K

Debts

$3.0K

Top industries

Education$5.8K

Top contributors

MCCORMACK SHEEP & GRAIN$8.4K

DRIVESCALE, INC.$6.5K

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY$5.8K

TACTYX$5.6K

R & L BROSAMER INC$5.6K

Antonio C. "Tony" AmadorH0CA09125 ↗

Receipts

$52.2K

Disburse

$52.2K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Crop production$2.5K

Real estate$1.8K

Casinos / gambling$500

Top contributors

WILDROSE VINEYARDS$3.0K

AMADOR & ASSOCIATES$2.8K

ROBERT BEADLES INC$2.8K

STOKES FARMS$2.0K

GRUPE REAL ESTATE$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$994.86

D side

$994.86 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

COURAGE CALIFORNIA …

For / against split

For McNerney $879.81

Against Amador $115.05

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	D	$754.76	76%	for Jerry McNerney
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$230.1	23%	for Jerry McNerney
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	1%	for Jerry McNerney

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

Nov 2

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 31

538

Safe D

Nov 2

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks