Races · house · 2020 · California

house · open seat

Ammar Campa-Najjar vs Carl DeMaio

← California house California house →

Lean DD +4.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
78% Campa-Najjar (D)
22% DeMaio (R)
Win probability
Ammar Campa-Najjar78% (D)
Carl DeMaio22% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +4.7
80% CIR+7.3 → D+16.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +4.7 · 80% CI R+7.3 → D+16.7
Actual result R+7.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 78% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+16) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.3 (10th pctile) to D+16.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +4.7

80% CI: R +7.3 → D +16.7 · win prob 78%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+7.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DAmmar Campa-Najjar0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RCarl DeMaio0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-02-04

Carl DeMaioH0CA50145 ↗

Receipts

$3.4M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$12.2K

Securities & investment$9.4K

Real estate$8.4K

Top contributors

JANE STREET$9.4K

THIRD POINT LLC$8.4K

SUDBERRY PROPERTIES$8.4K

THE GOLDSTEIN LAW FIRM$6.6K

DEVCON$6.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$234.7K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$234.7K · 100%

Top spender

AMERICAN UNITY PAC INC

For / against split

For DeMaio $234.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICAN UNITY PAC INC	R	$234.7K	100%	for Carl DeMaio

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R1

Likely R2

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Oct 20

Inside Elections

Likely R

Oct 15

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Sep 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-02-04

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks