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Races · house · 2020 · California
house · open seat

Mike Levin vs Brian Maryott

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +20.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Levin (D)
1% Maryott (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.6 · 80% CI D+8.6 → D+32.6
Actual result D+6.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+32.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.6
80% CI: D +8.6 → D +32.6 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMike Levin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBrian Maryott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-17
Mike LevinH8CA49058 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
Internet$21.7K
Education$14.5K
Pharma / health products$8.6K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$21.7K
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SAN DIEGO$14.5K
ZEPS INDUSTRIES$11.2K
ROYAL BUSINESS BANK$10.4K
TELEGRAPH HILL PARTNERS$8.9K
Brian MaryottH8CA49108 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$11.8K
Debts
$53.2K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$7.6K
Commercial banks$6.1K
Computers / electronics$5.6K
Top contributors
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO$12.6K
BARNHART REESE CONSTRUCTION$8.1K
GIBSON DUNN$7.6K
TROY GROUP$7.5K
WELLS FARGO ADVISORS$6.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$79.7K
D side
$79.7K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Levin $79.6K
Against Maryott $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND OF THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST PACD$62.6K79%for Mike Levin
WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)D$8.3K10%for Mike Levin
DEMOCRATIC WOMEN OF THE SOUTH ORANGE COUNTYD$5.9K7%for Mike Levin
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$1.3K2%for Mike Levin
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7501%for Mike Levin
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.050%against Brian Maryott

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks