Races · house · 2020 · California

house · open seat

Brynne Kennedy vs Tom McClintock

← California house California house →

Lean DD +2.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
64% Kennedy (D)
36% McClintock (R)
Win probability
Brynne Kennedy64% (D)
Tom McClintock36% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +2.2
80% CIR+9.8 → D+14.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +2.2 · 80% CI R+9.8 → D+14.2
Actual result R+11.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 64% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.8 (10th pctile) to D+14.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 64% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +2.2

80% CI: R +9.8 → D +14.2 · win prob 64%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+11.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RTom McClintock0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DBrynne Kennedy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-17

Brynne KennedyH0CA04175 ↗

Receipts

$3.0M

Disburse

$3.0M

Cash on hand

$3.5K

Debts

$261.3K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$429.9K

D side

$7.6K · 2%

R side

$422.4K · 98%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION

For / against split

For Kennedy $7.6K

Against Kennedy $422.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	R	$422.4K	98%	against Brynne Kennedy
WE VOTE - NOSOTROS VOTAMOS - PPAMM COMMITTEE	D	$4.2K	1%	for Brynne Kennedy
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	D	$1.3K	0%	for Brynne Kennedy
DAVIS DEMOCRATIC CLUB	D	$1.3K	0%	for Brynne Kennedy
TSB VICTORY	D	$630	0%	for Brynne Kennedy

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R3

Safe R3

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Nov 1

Decision Desk HQ

Likely R

Nov 2

Elections Daily

Likely R

Oct 31

538

Safe R

Nov 2

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tossupmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-17

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks