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Races · house · 2020 · California
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Christy Smith vs Mike Garcia

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +16.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Smith (D)
1% Garcia (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +16.6 · 80% CI D+4.6 → D+28.6
Actual result R+9.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.6 (10th pctile) to D+28.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.6
80% CI: D +4.6 → D +28.6 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+9.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Garcia0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DChristy Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-05-20
Christy SmithH0CA25253 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$949.2K
D side
$942.2K · 99%
R side
$7.0K · 1%
Top spender
LOS ANGELES COUNTY …
For / against split
For Smith $6.7K
Against Knight $935.4K
For Knight $7.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LOS ANGELES COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEED$6.7K1%for Christy Smith

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-05-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks