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Races · house · 2020 · California
house · open seat

Phil Arballo vs Devin Nunes

← California houseCalifornia house →
Lean RR +4.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
22% Arballo (D)
78% Nunes (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +4.7 · 80% CI R+16.7 → D+7.3
Actual result R+8.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 78% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.7 (10th pctile) to D+7.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 78% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.7
80% CI: R +16.7 → D +7.3 · win prob 22%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+8.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDevin Nunes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPhil Arballo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Devin NunesH8CA20059 ↗
Receipts
$26.9M
Disburse
$20.2M
Cash on hand
$10.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NONE - RETIRED$395.1K
NONE (RETIRED)$74.6K
RET$27.1K
NA$20.5K
RETIRED Z$19.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$53.2K
D side
$52.4K · 99%
R side
$736.61 · 1%
Top spender
END CITIZENS UNITED
For / against split
Against Nunes $52.4K
For Nunes $736.61
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$32.6K61%against Devin Nunes
MAD DOG PACD$15.8K30%against Devin Nunes
CHANGE CONGRESS NOW/CAMBIO AL CONGRESO YAD$3.1K6%against Devin Nunes
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$736.611%for Devin Nunes
FLIP THE WESTD$676.931%against Devin Nunes

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R2
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jul 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks