Races · house · 2020 · California

house · open seat

Josh Harder vs Ted Howze

← California house California house →

Safe DD +40.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Harder (D)
1% Howze (R)
Win probability
Josh Harder99% (D)
Ted Howze1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +40.7
80% CID+28.7 → D+52.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +40.7 · 80% CI D+28.7 → D+52.7
Actual result D+10.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+40.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.7 (10th pctile) to D+52.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +40.7

80% CI: D +28.7 → D +52.7 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+10.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJosh Harder0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RTed Howze0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Ted HowzeH8CA10209 ↗

Receipts

$1.6M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$14.2K

Debts

$270.5K

Top industries

Internet$10.4K

Education$5.6K

Oil & gas$5.6K

Top contributors

MTC DISTRIBUTING$12.2K

TRINITY REALITY$11.2K

P & F METALS$10.4K

ASSOCIATED FEED$5.7K

SAINT MARY'S HIGH SCHOOL$5.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$16.0K

D side

$15.6K · 98%

R side

$386.79 · 2%

Top spender

NATIONAL UNION OF H…

For / against split

Against Howze $15.6K

For Howze $386.79

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NATIONAL UNION OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS FEDERAL COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	D	$15.5K	97%	against Ted Howze
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$386.79	2%	for Ted Howze
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$115.05	1%	against Ted Howze

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

Likely D3

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Nov 1

Decision Desk HQ

Likely D

Nov 2

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 31

538

Likely D

Nov 2

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks