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Races · house · 2020 · California
house · open seat

Audrey Denney vs Doug LaMalfa

← Arizona houseCalifornia house →
Safe RR +20.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Denney (D)
99% LaMalfa (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +20.9 · 80% CI R+32.9 → R+8.8
Actual result R+14.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.9 (10th pctile) to R+8.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.9
80% CI: R +32.9 → R +8.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+14.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDoug LaMalfa0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAudrey Denney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-22
Audrey DenneyH8CA01257 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$4.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$14.1K
Education$7.0K
Lawyers / law firms$5.6K
Top contributors
ENLOE MEDICAL CENTER$14.1K
ST. CROSS EPISCOPAL CHURCH$11.0K
CSU CHICO$7.6K
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY CHICO$7.0K
BREAST CANCER PREVENTION PARTNERS$5.6K
Doug LaMalfaH2CA02142 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$91.2K
Debts
$1.2K
Top industries
Crop production$11.2K
Casinos / gambling$11.0K
Top contributors
SOVEREIGN NATION$38.7K
NOT INCORPORATED$19.1K
INDIAN TRIBE$15.0K
MONTNA FARMS$11.2K
STATION CASINOS$11.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$78.4K
D side
$48.8K · 62%
R side
$29.7K · 38%
Top spender
BLUE AMERICA PAC IN…
For / against split
For Denney $47.9K
Against LaMalfa $876.91
Against Denney $27.4K
For LaMalfa $2.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEED$30.2K38%for Audrey Denney
AMERICANS FOR ACCOUNTABILITY IN LEADERSHIPR$29.7K38%against Audrey Denney
DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF SISKIYOU COUNTY - FEDERALD$6.5K8%for Audrey Denney
DEMOCRATIC ACTION CLUB OF CHICOD$4.8K6%for Audrey Denney
CD 1 ALLIANCED$3.2K4%for Audrey Denney
FLIP THE WESTD$676.931%against Doug LaMalfa
THE REALLY ONLINE LEFTY LEAGUER$6.050%for Doug LaMalfa

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R3
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Decision Desk HQ
Likely R
Nov 2
Elections Daily
Likely R
Oct 31
538
Safe R
Nov 2
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks