Races · house · 2020 · Arizona
house · open seat
Michael Muscato vs Debbie Lesko
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.8 (10th pctile) to R+6.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.8
80% CI: R +30.8 → R +6.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+19.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 133 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet72
61
Endorsements tracked
Michael Muscato72 · 54%
Debbie Lesko61 · 46%
Total133
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMichael Muscato72 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other29
Other · 29
- Kevin McCarthy · minority leader of the United States House of Representatives
- AAPI Victory Fund
- AFT · Arizona
- American Crystal Sugar Company
- Apache County · former Apache County supervisor
- Brady Campaign
- Brand New Congress
- Climate Strike · Arizona
- Democracy for America
- EMILY's List
- Elect AAPI
- End Citizens United
- Friends of the Earth · Action
- Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence
- High School Democrats of America
- Human Rights Campaign
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood
- Safford · aylor, Safford city councilman
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats · emocrats
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- Sunrise Movement · Flagstaff chapter
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Arizona Republic
- UNITE HERE
- University of Arizona · obbyist for University of Arizona
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- 314 Action · Fund
- AFL–CIO
- ASPIRE PAC
- Amalgamated Transit Union · Local 1433
- American Association for Justice
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- American Physical Therapy Association
- American Society of Anesthesiologists
- Communication Workers of America · Arizona State Council
- Communications Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · (CHC) Bold PAC
- Curt Schilling · former Major League Baseball pitcher for Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox
- Equality PAC
- Everytown for Gun Safety · Action Fund
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers · (SMART) Local 359
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Joint Council 25
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Women's Political Caucus · (NWPC)
- NewDem Action Fund
- Off the Sidelines PAC
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Elected officials15
Federal 4State 10Local 1
Elected officials · 15
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Charlene Fernandez · state representative and state House minority leader
- Rebecca Rios · state senator and former state House minority leader (2017–2019), state representative (2015–2019), and state senator (2005–2011)
- Jon Kyl · former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995–2013, 2018)
- Robert Meza · state representative and former state senator (2011–2019) and state representative (2003–2011)
- Ann Kirkpatrick · U.S. representative (AZ-02)
- Jamescita Peshlakai · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Justine Wadsack · realtor and small business owner ( running for state senate )
- Lela Alston · state senator and former state representative (2011–2019)
- Martín Quezada · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Randy Friese · state representative
- Rich Andrade · state representative
- Tom O'Halleran · U.S. representative (AZ-01)
- Victoria Steele · state senator and former state representative (2013–2016)
- Williams · re, mayor of Williams
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Marianne Williamson · author and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Arizona Daily Star
RDebbie Lesko61 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other25
Other · 25
- Kevin McCarthy · minority leader of the United States House of Representatives
- AAPI Victory Fund
- AFT · Arizona
- Anita Malik · businesswoman, entrepreneur, and nominee for this seat in 2018
- Brady Campaign
- Center for Arizona Policy
- Club for Growth
- Concerned Women for America
- Democracy for America
- EMILY's List
- Elect AAPI
- End Citizens United
- High School Democrats of America
- Hiral Tipirneni · emergency room physician and nominee for Arizona's 8th congressional district in the 2018 special and general elections
- Human Rights Campaign
- Litchfield Park · former Litchfield Park city manager and councilman
- Maggie's List
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Peace Action
- RightNOW Women
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats · emocrats
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Organizations23
Organizations · 23
- 314 Action · Fund
- 60 Plus Association
- ASPIRE PAC
- Amalgamated Transit Union · Local 1433
- American Conservative Union
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Local 2384
- Communication Workers of America · Arizona State Council
- Communications Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · (CHC) Bold PAC
- Equality PAC
- Everytown for Gun Safety · Action Fund
- Freedom Caucus
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers · (SMART) Local 359
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 640
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 104
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- NewDem Action Fund
- Off the Sidelines PAC
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 99
Elected officials13
Federal 4State 9Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Charlene Fernandez · state representative and state House minority leader
- Rebecca Rios · state senator and former state House minority leader (2017–2019), state representative (2015–2019), and state senator (2005–2011)
- Jon Kyl · former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995–2013, 2018)
- Robert Meza · state representative and former state senator (2011–2019) and state representative (2003–2011)
- Ann Kirkpatrick · U.S. representative (AZ-02)
- Jamescita Peshlakai · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Lela Alston · state senator and former state representative (2011–2019)
- Martín Quezada · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Randy Friese · state representative
- Rich Andrade · state representative
- Tom O'Halleran · U.S. representative (AZ-01)
- Victoria Steele · state senator and former state representative (2013–2016)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-23Debbie LeskoH8AZ08158 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$996.8K
Cash on hand
$688.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michael MuscatoH0AZ08072 ↗
Receipts
$409.5K
Disburse
$399.3K
Cash on hand
$10.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
GPQ ASSOCIATES$5.6K
SUNSOLAR SOLUTIONS$5.6K
PRINTGRAPHICS$4.4K
THE CAUSE COLLECTION$3.8K
COLLINEAR NETWORKS$3.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$18.1K
D side
$898.2 · 5%
R side
$17.2K · 95%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $15.5K | 86% | for Debbie Lesko |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.3K | 7% | for Debbie Lesko |
| TOGETHER WE THRIVE super pac · boosts D
| D | $750 | 4% | against Debbie Lesko |
| WINNING FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $218.81 | 1% | for Debbie Lesko |
| STUDENTS FOR LIFE ACTION pac · boosts R
| R | $171.6 | 1% | for Debbie Lesko |
| AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIO pac · boosts D
| D | $138.2 | 1% | for Michael Muscato |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Michael Muscato |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 1
- Decision Desk HQ · Nov 2
- Elections Daily · Oct 31
- 538 · Nov 2
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-23
Endorsements133 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks