Races · house · 2020 · Arizona
house · open seat
Ruben Gallego vs Josh Barnett
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+57.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+45.6 (10th pctile) to D+69.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +57.6
80% CI: D +45.6 → D +69.6 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+53.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 133 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet72
61
Endorsements tracked
Ruben Gallego72 · 54%
Josh Barnett61 · 46%
Total133
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRuben Gallego72 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other29
Other · 29
- Kevin McCarthy · minority leader of the United States House of Representatives
- AAPI Victory Fund
- AFT · Arizona
- American Crystal Sugar Company
- Apache County · former Apache County supervisor
- Brady Campaign
- Brand New Congress
- Climate Strike · Arizona
- Democracy for America
- EMILY's List
- Elect AAPI
- End Citizens United
- Friends of the Earth · Action
- Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence
- High School Democrats of America
- Human Rights Campaign
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood
- Safford · aylor, Safford city councilman
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats · emocrats
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- Sunrise Movement · Flagstaff chapter
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Arizona Republic
- UNITE HERE
- University of Arizona · obbyist for University of Arizona
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- 314 Action · Fund
- AFL–CIO
- ASPIRE PAC
- Amalgamated Transit Union · Local 1433
- American Association for Justice
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- American Physical Therapy Association
- American Society of Anesthesiologists
- Communication Workers of America · Arizona State Council
- Communications Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · (CHC) Bold PAC
- Curt Schilling · former Major League Baseball pitcher for Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox
- Equality PAC
- Everytown for Gun Safety · Action Fund
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers · (SMART) Local 359
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Joint Council 25
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Women's Political Caucus · (NWPC)
- NewDem Action Fund
- Off the Sidelines PAC
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers
Elected officials15
Federal 4State 10Local 1
Elected officials · 15
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Charlene Fernandez · state representative and state House minority leader
- Rebecca Rios · state senator and former state House minority leader (2017–2019), state representative (2015–2019), and state senator (2005–2011)
- Jon Kyl · former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995–2013, 2018)
- Robert Meza · state representative and former state senator (2011–2019) and state representative (2003–2011)
- Ann Kirkpatrick · U.S. representative (AZ-02)
- Jamescita Peshlakai · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Justine Wadsack · realtor and small business owner ( running for state senate )
- Lela Alston · state senator and former state representative (2011–2019)
- Martín Quezada · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Randy Friese · state representative
- Rich Andrade · state representative
- Tom O'Halleran · U.S. representative (AZ-01)
- Victoria Steele · state senator and former state representative (2013–2016)
- Williams · re, mayor of Williams
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Marianne Williamson · author and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Arizona Daily Star
RJosh Barnett61 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other25
Other · 25
- Kevin McCarthy · minority leader of the United States House of Representatives
- AAPI Victory Fund
- AFT · Arizona
- Anita Malik · businesswoman, entrepreneur, and nominee for this seat in 2018
- Brady Campaign
- Center for Arizona Policy
- Club for Growth
- Concerned Women for America
- Democracy for America
- EMILY's List
- Elect AAPI
- End Citizens United
- High School Democrats of America
- Hiral Tipirneni · emergency room physician and nominee for Arizona's 8th congressional district in the 2018 special and general elections
- Human Rights Campaign
- Litchfield Park · former Litchfield Park city manager and councilman
- Maggie's List
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Peace Action
- RightNOW Women
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats · emocrats
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- Susan B. Anthony List
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Organizations23
Organizations · 23
- 314 Action · Fund
- 60 Plus Association
- ASPIRE PAC
- Amalgamated Transit Union · Local 1433
- American Conservative Union
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Local 2384
- Communication Workers of America · Arizona State Council
- Communications Workers of America
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus · (CHC) Bold PAC
- Equality PAC
- Everytown for Gun Safety · Action Fund
- Freedom Caucus
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers · (SMART) Local 359
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 640
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 104
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Right to Life Committee
- NewDem Action Fund
- Off the Sidelines PAC
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 99
Elected officials13
Federal 4State 9Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
- Charlene Fernandez · state representative and state House minority leader
- Rebecca Rios · state senator and former state House minority leader (2017–2019), state representative (2015–2019), and state senator (2005–2011)
- Jon Kyl · former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995–2013, 2018)
- Robert Meza · state representative and former state senator (2011–2019) and state representative (2003–2011)
- Ann Kirkpatrick · U.S. representative (AZ-02)
- Jamescita Peshlakai · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Lela Alston · state senator and former state representative (2011–2019)
- Martín Quezada · state senator and former state representative (2013–2015)
- Randy Friese · state representative
- Rich Andrade · state representative
- Tom O'Halleran · U.S. representative (AZ-01)
- Victoria Steele · state senator and former state representative (2013–2016)
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 1
- Decision Desk HQ · Nov 2
- Elections Daily · Oct 31
- 538 · Nov 2
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements133 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks