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Races · house · 2020 · Arizona
house · open seat

Hiral Tipirneni vs David Schweikert

Lean RR +4.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
25% Tipirneni (D)
75% Schweikert (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +4.0 · 80% CI R+16.0 → D+8.0
Actual result R+4.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 75% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.0 (10th pctile) to D+8.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 75% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.0
80% CI: R +16.0D +8.0 · win prob 25%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 61 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Schweikert · 100%61
RDavid Schweikert61 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other25
Organizations23
Elected officials13
Federal 4State 9Local 0
DHiral Tipirneni0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Hiral TipirneniH8AZ08083 ↗
Receipts
$6.3M
Disburse
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$35.0K
Debts
$70.0K
Education$24.5K
Health professionals$17.9K
Internet$15.3K
Securities & investment$7.1K
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$16.1K
GOOGLE$15.3K
MAYO CLINIC$9.5K
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$9.4K
BANNER HEALTH$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.5M
D side
$924.3K · 26%
R side
$2.6M · 74%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Tipirneni $924.3K
Against Tipirneni $2.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.0M56%against Hiral Tipirneni
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIOND$784.9K22%for Hiral Tipirneni
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$500.0K14%against Hiral Tipirneni
NATIONAL HORIZONR$140.0K4%against Hiral Tipirneni

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup4
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1
Decision Desk HQ
Tossup
Nov 2
Elections Daily
Lean R
Oct 31
538
Tossup
Nov 2
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements61 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks