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Races · house · 2020 · Arizona
house · open seat

Joan Greene vs Andy Biggs

Safe RR +22.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Greene (D)
99% Biggs (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +22.6 · 80% CI R+34.6 → R+10.6
Actual result R+17.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.6 (10th pctile) to R+10.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.6
80% CI: R +34.6R +10.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+17.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 133 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
72Greene · 54%
Biggs · 46%61
DJoan Greene72 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other29
Organizations26
Elected officials15
Federal 4State 10Local 1
Celebrity1
Newspapers1
RAndy Biggs61 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States
Other25
Organizations23
Elected officials13
Federal 4State 9Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-03
Andy BiggsH6AZ05083 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$651.0K
Debts
$40.0K
Health professionals$11.2K
Insurance$5.3K
Lawyers / law firms$5.0K
21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE INC.$11.2K
JDM PARTNERS LLC$7.5K
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT CORP.$7.1K
WCG, INC$5.6K
STRONGWATCH$5.6K
Joan GreeneH8AZ05154 ↗
Receipts
$228.6K
Disburse
$225.2K
Cash on hand
$4.2K
Debts
$142.9K
Real estate$1.0K
Air transport$750
K ROWE INVESTMENTS$7.5K
PICARD INVESTMENT GROUP, INC.$3.8K
NO DEM LEFT BEHIND$2.5K
INEIGHT$2.5K
BLUE KNOT STRATEGIES$1.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$16.4K
D side
$888.2 · 5%
R side
$15.5K · 95%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
For / against split
For Greene $138.2
Against Biggs $750
For Biggs $15.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$13.8K85%for Andy Biggs
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$1.6K10%for Andy Biggs
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7505%against Andy Biggs
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES AFL-CIOD$138.21%for Joan Greene

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
Nov 2
Elections Daily
Safe R
Oct 31
538
Safe R
Nov 2
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-03
Endorsements133 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks