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Races · house · 2020 · Arkansas
house · open seat

Joyce Elliott vs French Hill

← Arkansas houseArkansas house →
Likely RR +13.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Elliott (D)
99% Hill (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.9 · 80% CI R+25.9 → R+1.9
Actual result R+10.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.9 (10th pctile) to R+1.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.9
80% CI: R +25.9 → R +1.9 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+10.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 14 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Hill · 100%14
RFrench Hill14 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009-2017, former senator from Illinois (2005-2008)
Organizations7
Other5
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
DJoyce Elliott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Joyce ElliottH0AR02206 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$3.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$9.6K
Govt employees$6.1K
Education$6.1K
Top contributors
UAMS$24.0K
NOT-EMPLOYED$15.4K
GOOGLE$9.6K
WELSEY K. CLARK & ASSOCIATES, LLC$8.4K
ARKANSAS DEPT. OF HEALTH$6.4K
French HillH4AR02141 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$410.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$21.5K
Casinos / gambling$11.0K
Top contributors
STEPHENS INC.$39.5K
CAPITAL GROUP$27.3K
STATE OF ARKANSAS$21.5K
HANK'S FINE FURNITURE$11.2K
DYKE INDUSTRIES INC.$11.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$12.7M
D side
$8.8M · 70%
R side
$3.9M · 30%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Elliott $3.3M
Against Hill $5.5M
Against Elliott $3.5M
For Hill $323.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.9M23%against Joyce Elliott
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$2.6M21%against French Hill
WOMEN VOTE!D$2.3M18%against French Hill
DCCCD$1.6M13%against French Hill
ESAFUNDR$926.3K7%against Joyce Elliott
NEA ADVOCACY FUNDD$815.2K6%for Joyce Elliott
BLACK PACD$569.4K4%for Joyce Elliott
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$8.5K0%for French Hill

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks