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Races · house · 2020 · Alabama
house · open seat

Phyllis Harvey-Hall vs Barry Moore

Likely DD +9.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Harvey-Hall (D)
5% Moore (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.6 · 80% CI R+2.4 → D+21.6
Actual result R+30.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.4 (10th pctile) to D+21.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.6
80% CI: R +2.4D +21.6 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+30.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Moore · 100%17
RBarry Moore17 endorsers
Most notable · Rick Santorum · 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and U.S. Representative (PA-18) (1991–1995)
Elected officials7
Federal 5State 2Local 0
Other7
Organizations3
DPhyllis Harvey-Hall0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Phyllis Harvey-HallOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$57.7K
Disburse
$57.7K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$5.7K
Govt employees$400
ALABAMA STATE DEPARTMENT OF ED$400

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks