Races · house · 2020 · Alabama

house · open seat

James Averhart vs Jerry Carl

← Alaska house Alabama house →

Safe RR +42.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Averhart (D)
99% Carl (R)
Win probability
James Averhart1% (D)
Jerry Carl99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +42.6
80% CIR+54.6 → R+30.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +42.6 · 80% CI R+54.6 → R+30.6
Actual result R+28.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+27) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.6 (10th pctile) to R+30.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +42.6

80% CI: R +54.6 → R +30.6 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+28.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Carl · 100%17
Endorsements tracked
James Averhart0 · 0%
Jerry Carl17 · 100%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJerry Carl17 endorsers

Most notable · Rick Santorum · 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) and U.S. Representative (PA-18) (1991–1995)

Elected officials7

Federal 5State 2Local 0

Other7

Organizations3

DJames Averhart0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-27

Jerry CarlH0AL01055 ↗

Receipts

$2.3M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$112.0K

Debts

$469.2K

Top industries

Education$17.0K

Real estate$13.2K

Crop production$9.9K

Top contributors

NA$73.3K

COOPER T SMITH$17.0K

BURTON PROPERTY GROUP$14.0K

BRETT ROBINSON REAL ESTATE$13.2K

ESFELLER CONSTRUCTION$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$4.2M

D side

$3.7M · 88%

R side

$487.0K · 12%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION

For / against split

Against Carl $3.7M

For Carl $487.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	D	$3.7M	88%	against Jerry Carl
RIGHT FOR ALABAMA PAC, INC	R	$486.9K	12%	for Jerry Carl
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$33.18	0%	for Jerry Carl

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R3

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-27

Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks