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Races · house · 2020 · Alaska
house · open seat

Alaska house

Alabama house →
Likely RR +7.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
11% (D)
89% Young (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +7.3 · 80% CI R+19.3 → D+4.7
Actual result R+9.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 89% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+19.3 (10th pctile) to D+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.3
80% CI: R +19.3 → D +4.7 · win prob 11%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+9.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDon Young0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IAlyse Galvin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-07
Don YoungH6AK00045 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$249.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$19.7K
Health professionals$8.4K
Govt employees$6.3K
Real estate$6.1K
Top contributors
EDISON CHOUEST OFFSHORE$19.7K
GCI$14.8K
ROBERTSON MONAGLE & EASTAUGH$12.6K
THE ODOM CORPORATION$11.0K
MEDICAL NETWORK OF ALASKA$8.4K
Alyse GalvinH8AK00140 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$5.2M
Cash on hand
$96.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$59.8K
Education$25.0K
Computers / electronics$22.3K
Govt employees$19.3K
Health professionals$11.9K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$44.2K
APPLE$22.3K
STATE OF ALASKA$19.3K
FACEBOOK$15.6K
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA$12.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.3M
D side
$8.1M · 98%
R side
$151.4K · 2%
Top spender
DCCC
For / against split
Against Young $8.1M
For Young $151.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DCCCD$4.0M49%against Don Young
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$4.0M48%against Don Young
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDD$1.7M20%against Alyse Galvin
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$230.7K3%against Don Young
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$103.9K1%for Don Young
INDEPENDENT ALASKAI$48.1K1%for Alyse Galvin
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$17.5K0%for Don Young
PROTECT THE VOTEI$4.3K0%for Alyse Galvin
AMERICAN CENTERI$1.0K0%for Alyse Galvin

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks