Races · Governor · 2026 · TX
Governor · open seat

Texas Governor

← TX Governor VT Governor →
Lean R — · 82 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 77% R

lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +10.5
80% CI: R +28.0 → D +7.0 · win prob 23%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election87
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +10.5
80% CI R +28.0 → D +7.0
CV MAE 13.66
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi

In the news

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