Races · Governor · 2026 · VT
Governor · open seat
Vermont Governor
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely R · model 90% D · market gap 67pp
likely-r · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +17.7
80% CI: D +0.2 → D +35.2 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +13.6
80% CI R +42.4 → D +30.4
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +17.7
80% CI D +0.2 → D +35.2
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe R | Jan 23 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | Feb 6 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | May 1 | — | -9.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Likely R via markets
In the news
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Vermont Senate advances statewide ban on guns in barswcax.com · 2d ago -
Vermont governor urges support for secure facility for violent offenderswamc.org · 2d ago -
Bus stop attack fuels conversation about mental health treatment in Vermontmynbc5.com · 2d ago -
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This Supreme Court victory for oil giants is not what it seems – People Worldpeoplesworld.org · 2d ago -
Campus protests cool , but the hate remains : What new data says about antisemitism in New Englandunionleader.com · 2d ago -
Vermont Agency of Education points fingers over an unfunded literacy program requestvtdigger.org · 2d ago -
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