| 3/19/2026 | TIPP Insights | 1.00 | R | 1175 | ±2.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mandela Barnes 43.0 · Tom Tiffany 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/19/2026 | TIPP Insights | 1.00 | R | 1175 | ±2.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| David Crowley 42.0 · Tom Tiffany 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/19/2026 | TIPP Insights | 1.00 | R | 1175 | ±2.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Francesca Hong 40.0 · Tom Tiffany 43.0 | pollarch |
| 3/19/2026 | TIPP Insights | 1.00 | R | 1175 | ±2.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Sara Rodriguez 44.0 · Tom Tiffany 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/16/2026 | Patriot Polling | 1.37 | R(R+1.4) | 812 | ±3.5 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
| Francesca Hong 42.0 · Tom Tiffany 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/8/2025 | Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
214d old Poll was fielded 214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mandela Barnes 50.0 · Tom Tiffany 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/8/2025 | Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
214d old Poll was fielded 214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mandela Barnes 51.0 · Tim Michels 44.0 | pollarch |