Races · Governor · 2026 · MD
Governor · open seat

Wes Moore vs Larry Hogan

← MA Governor ME Governor →
Safe D — · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 4 markets Last poll 140d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 97% D

safe-d · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +26.4
80% CI: D +8.9 → D +43.9 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +16.6
80% CI D +1.9 → D +28.2
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +14.0
80% CI D +9.5 → D +18.5
CV MAE 3.54
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +26.4
80% CI D +8.9 → D +43.9
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
12/21/2025Gonzales Research1.00—808±3.5RV
no scored polls140d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 140d old
    Poll was fielded 140 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Wes Moore 50.0pollarch
12/27/2024Gonzales Research1.00—811±3.5RV
no scored polls499d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 499d old
    Poll was fielded 499 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Wes Moore 52.0 · Larry Hogan 38.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 45 total
Larry Hogan (R)
23 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • J. B. Jennings — state senator from the 7th district (2011–present) [ 46 ]
  • Jack Bailey — state senator from the 29th district (2019–present) [ 46 ]
  • Johnny Ray Salling — state senator from the 6th district (2015–present) [ 46 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Maryland Republican Party — [ 32 ]
Other (19)
  • Brenda Thiam
  • Carl Brunner
  • Dan Cox
  • Douglas Larcomb
  • Ed Hale
  • Jeremy Shifflett
  • John Myrick
  • Kevin Rhodes
  • L. D. Burkindine
  • Martina Duncan
  • Michael Oakes
  • Nancy Taylor
  • Rachael "Mohawk" Swift
  • Reba Hawkins
  • Robert Krop
  • Ronald Abend
  • Shannon Wright
  • Tyrone Keys
  • Veterans for America First — [ 47 ]
Wes Moore (D)
22 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Ed Rothstein — secretary of the Maryland Department of Veterans and Military Families (2025–present) (Republican) [ 14 ]
Organizations / unions (9)
  • Black Economic Alliance — PAC [ 20 ]
  • Collective PAC — [ 21 ]
  • International Association of Fire Fighters — Fighters [ 17 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 22 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — on Voters [ 23 ]
  • Maryland State Education Association — [ 18 ]
  • Service Employees International Union — Local 500 [ 19 ]
  • Sharon Green Middleton — vice chair of the Baltimore City Council (2016–present) from the 6th district (2007–present) [ 15 ]
  • Steuart Pittman — chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2025–present) and Anne Arundel County executive (2018–present) [ 16 ]
Other (12)
  • Angela Alsobrooks — Maryland (2025–present) [ 13 ]
  • April McClain Delaney — MD-06 (2025–present) [ 13 ]
  • Aruna Miller — (incumbent)
  • Calvin Ball III — Howard County executive (2018–present) [ 15 ]
  • Carl Anderton Jr. — former state delegate from district 38B (2015–2024) (Republican) [ 14 ]
  • Chris Van Hollen — Maryland (2017–present) [ 13 ]
  • Eric Felber
  • LaTrece Hawkins Lytes
  • Moms Demand Action — [ 24 ]
  • Vote Common Good — [ 12 ]
  • VoteVets — [ 25 ]
  • Wes Moore — (incumbent)

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Sep 11 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Aug 28 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Sep 4 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 5 months ago (12/21/2025) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe D via markets