Races · Governor · 2024 · West Virginia
Governor · open seat
Steve Williams vs Patrick Morrisey
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.9 (10th pctile) to R+11.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.9
80% CI: R +35.9 → R +11.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+30.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | Research America+1For · WV MetroNews | 400 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | -5.0noisy | 35 · 49 |
| Jun 3 | Kaplan Strategies | 464 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 21 · 34 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet12
Endorsements tracked
Steve Williams0 · 0%
Patrick Morrisey12 · 100%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RPatrick Morrisey12 endorsers
Most notable · Jim Justice · governor of West Virginia (2017–2025)
Other6
Other · 6
- Americans for Prosperity
- Bob Huggins · former basketball coach
- Citizens United PVF
- Club for Growth
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- The Exponent Telegram
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Jim Justice · governor of West Virginia (2017–2025)
- Shelley Moore Capito · U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present) (candidate's mother)
- Vivek Ramaswamy · entrepreneur and former candidate for president in 2024
- David Bossie · president of Citizens United
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- National Association for Gun Rights · PAC
- West Virginia Coal Association
DSteve Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJoe Manchin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Aug 16
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 12
- Elections Daily · Jul 11
- Inside Elections · Jul 13
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 3
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks