| 10/28/2024 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 695 | — | LV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡559d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
559d old Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Spencer Cox 43.0 · Brian King 26.0 · Robert Latham 3.0 · Tommy Williams 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2024 | HarrisX | 1.00 | —(R+0.4) | 813 | — | RV | 🟡568d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+4- 🟡
568d old Poll was fielded 568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.
| Spencer Cox 51.0 · Brian King 19.0 · Robert Latham 3.0 · Tommy Williams 4.0 | pollarch |
| 10/7/2024 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 539 | — | LV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡580d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
580d old Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Spencer Cox 54.0 · Brian King 26.0 | pollarch |
| 9/28/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 612 | — | LV | 🟡589d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+4- 🟡
589d old Poll was fielded 589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Salt Lake Tribune Commissioned by The Salt Lake Tribune, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Spencer Cox 45.0 · Brian King 32.0 | pollarch |
| 9/4/2024 | Lighthouse Research | 1.00 | — | 518 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡613d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
613d old Poll was fielded 613 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Spencer Cox 48.0 · Brian King 27.0 · Robert Latham 7.0 · Tommy Williams 4.0 | pollarch |
| 8/9/2024 | HarrisX | 1.00 | —(R+0.4) | 800 | — | RV | 🟡639d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+4- 🟡
639d old Poll was fielded 639 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias R+0.4pt Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.
| Spencer Cox 56.0 · Brian King 17.0 · Robert Latham 4.0 · Tommy Williams 6.0 | pollarch |