Races · Governor · 2024 · North Dakota
Governor · open seat
Merrill Piepkorn vs Kelly Armstrong
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+38.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+50.2 (10th pctile) to R+26.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +38.2
80% CI: R +50.2 → R +26.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Kelly Armstrong Michelle Strinden +42.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | WPA Intelligence+1For · North Dakota News Cooperative shows | 500 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -1.2aligned | 24 · 54 |
| Jun 18 | Public Opinion Strategies+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +7.33 tracked | -2.7r lean | 22 · 61 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
7
Endorsements tracked
Merrill Piepkorn1 · 13%
Kelly Armstrong7 · 87%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKelly Armstrong7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · former President of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials6
Federal 3State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · former President of the United States (2017–2021)
- Doug Burgum · Governor of North Dakota (2016–2024)
- John Hoeven · U.S. Senator for North Dakota (2011–present) and former governor (2000–2010)
- Kevin Cramer · U.S. Senator for North Dakota (2019–present)and former U.S. Representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district
- Michael Howe · North Dakota Secretary of State (2023–present)
- Jim Jordan · U.S. Representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007-Present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- North Dakota Republican Party
DMerrill Piepkorn1 endorser
Most notable · North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party
IMichael Coachman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Aug 16
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 12
- Elections Daily · Jul 11
- Inside Elections · Jul 13
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 3
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks