Races · Governor · 2024 · Delaware

Governor · open seat

Matt Meyer vs Mike Ramone

Indiana Governor →

Safe DD +25.8 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Meyer (D)
1% Ramone (R)
Win probability
Matt Meyer99% (D)
Mike Ramone1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.8
80% CID+13.8 → D+37.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +25.8 · 80% CI D+13.8 → D+37.8
Actual result D+12.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.8 (10th pctile) to D+37.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.8

80% CI: D +13.8 → D +37.8 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
25303540455055MEYER 51.6RAMONE 28.1SEP '24SEP '24SEP '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Sep 20	Slingshot Strategies	500 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	52 · 25
Sep 18	University of Delaware	400 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 32

Endorsements · 10 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

10Meyer · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Matt Meyer10 · 100%
Mike Ramone0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMatt Meyer10 endorsers

Most notable · John Carney · governor of Delaware (2017–2025) and former U.S. representative for Delaware's at-large congressional district (2011–2017)

Organizations4

Elected officials3

Federal 0State 2Local 1

Other3

RMike Ramone0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 12

Elections Daily

Safe D

Jul 11

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jul 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks