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Races · Governor · 2022 · Wisconsin
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Tony Evers vs Tim Michels

← Vermont GovernorWyoming Governor →
Tilt RR +0.9 forecast· 36 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
44% Evers (D)
56% Michels (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +0.9 · 80% CI R+12.9 → D+11.1
Actual result Tony EversSara Rodriguez +3.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 56% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+0.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.9 (10th pctile) to D+11.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 56% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.9
80% CI: R +12.9 → D +11.1 · win prob 44%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used36
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultTony EversSara Rodriguez +3.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

05101520253035404550MICHELS 47.7EVERS 47.3BEGLINGER 2.9KLEEFISCH 42.4RAMTHUN 33.4NICHOLSON 39.4AUG '22SEP '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 36 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs739 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean51 · 48
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned48 · 48
Nov 4, 22Data for Progress+21,504 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 50
Nov 3, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,095 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 50
Oct 31, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University802 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled44 · 45
Oct 30, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College655 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned47 · 45
Oct 29, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,000 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean46 · 47
Oct 29, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,089 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned47 · 48
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 48
Oct 22, 22Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling801 · LVR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean46 · 50
Oct 21, 22Data for Progress+11,376 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 49
Oct 16, 22CNN/SSRS905 · RVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean50 · 46
Oct 8, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University801 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled46 · 41
Oct 6, 22YouGov/CBS News+2For · CBS News1,138 · RVNEUTRAL—+1.6aligned50 · 50
Sep 26, 22Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling574 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 46
Sep 25, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,012 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean47 · 47
Sep 24, 22Fabrazio Ward (R)/Impact Research1,399 · LVD-LEAN——47 · 50
Sep 22, 22Data for Progress+1999 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 48
Sep 18, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 48
Sep 17, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling860 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 43
Sep 17, 22Big Data PollFor · CDM852 · LVNEUTRALR +6.84 tracked-2.3r lean42 · 42
Sep 14, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College651 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned49 · 44
Sep 12, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs780 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 48
Sep 10, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University801 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled44 · 43
Aug 24, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,091 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 48
Aug 23, 22OnMessage Inc.+1600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean48 · 48
Aug 15, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,006 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean49 · 46
Aug 14, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University811 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled45 · 43
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled48 · 41
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled47 · 43
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled51 · 34
Jun 19, 22Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University803 · RVNEUTRALR +1.39 tracked+2.8decoupled48 · 40
Aug 23, 21Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies730 · RVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned39 · 38
Jul 7, 21CygnalFor · Cygnal640 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned47
Mar 26, 21Change Research+21,723 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy48 · 43
Feb 8, 21Public Policy Polling937 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy45
· 36 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 37 total

Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yet
37Evers · 100%
DTony Evers37 endorsers
Most notable · Barbara Lawton · former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin (2003–2011)
Elected officials25
Federal 0State 24Local 0
Organizations6
Other6
RTim Michels0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJoan Ellis Beglinger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRebecca Kleefisch0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTim Ramthun0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKevin Nicholson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup3
Lean R2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 6
538
Tossup
Oct 6
Inside Elections
Tossup
Mar 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified36 / 36deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements37 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks