Races · Governor · 2022 · Vermont

Governor · open seat

Vermont Governor

← Texas Governor Wisconsin Governor →

Likely RR +8.5 forecast· 5 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
8% (D)
92% Scott (R)
Win probability
Democrat8% (D)
Phil Scott92% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +8.5
80% CIR+20.5 → D+3.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +8.5 · 80% CI R+20.5 → D+3.5
Actual result R+47.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 92% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+8.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+20.5 (10th pctile) to D+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +8.5

80% CI: R +20.5 → D +3.5 · win prob 8%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	5
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+47.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
455055606570SCOTT 62.7APR '22JUL '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 5 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 25	Data for Progress+1	1,039 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	65
Oct 2	University of New Hampshire+1	865 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	48
Sep 6	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,072 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	68
Jul 24	University of New Hampshire+1	651 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	60
Apr 17	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	583 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	50

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RPhil Scott0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 3

Elections Daily

Safe R

Nov 6

538

Safe R

Aug 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Aug 17

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified5 / 5deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks