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Races · Governor · 2022 · Texas
Governor · open seat

Beto O'Rourke vs Greg Abbott

← Tennessee GovernorVermont Governor →
Likely RR +12.9 forecast· 70 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% O'Rourke (D)
98% Abbott (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +12.9 · 80% CI R+24.9 → R+0.9
Actual result R+10.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.9 (10th pctile) to R+0.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.9
80% CI: R +24.9 → R +0.9 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used70
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+10.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

1015202530354045505560ABBOTT 50.9O'ROURKE 42.8MCCONAUGHEY 13.0OCT '21MAY '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 70 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 4, 22CWS Research786 · LVR-LEAN——42 · 53
Nov 3, 22CWS Research786 · unknownR-LEAN——42 · 53
Oct 23, 22UT Tyler+11,330 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean44 · 47
Oct 22, 22YouGov1,200 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean40 · 53
Oct 20, 22University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research973 · unknownNEUTRAL——44 · 50
Oct 18, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 52
Oct 18, 22Siena College+2For · RealClearPolitics649 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 52
Oct 18, 22Beacon Research+1For · KXAN Austin1,264 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean45 · 48
Oct 18, 22YouGov817 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean44 · 51
Oct 17, 22BSP Research/UT1,400 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 46
Oct 17, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 52
Oct 17, 22Siena College649 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 52
Oct 16, 22YouGov/UTFor · The Texas Politics Project833 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 54
Oct 16, 22Beacon Research1,264 · unknownD-LEAN—+8.2d lean45 · 48
Oct 14, 22BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research930 · unknownNEUTRAL——41 · 53
Oct 11, 22YouGov883 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean43 · 54
Oct 10, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs791 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean44 · 52
Oct 9, 22Civiqs791 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean44 · 52
Oct 5, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,058 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned45 · 49
Oct 4, 22Marist College1,058 · unknownD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned45 · 49
Sep 25, 22Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,327 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned46 · 53
Sep 23, 22Quinnipiac University1,327 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned46 · 53
Sep 21, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 50
Sep 20, 22ActiVote+2For · ActiVote323 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned40 · 47
Sep 20, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 50
Sep 17, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College651 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 50
Sep 15, 22Siena College651 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 50
Sep 14, 22Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation1,172 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 51
Sep 12, 22UT Tyler+11,268 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean38 · 47
Sep 9, 22University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research1,268 · unknownNEUTRAL——38 · 47
Sep 9, 22Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation1,172 · unknownNEUTRAL——44 · 51
Sep 8, 22Data for Progress+1712 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 50
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+1813 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy46 · 48
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+1813 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy39 · 42
Sep 5, 22YouGov/UT1,200 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 45
Aug 28, 22YouGov/UH/TSU1,312 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 49
Aug 6, 22UT Tyler+11,384 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean39 · 46
Jul 6, 22YouGov/UH1,169 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 47
Jun 26, 22YouGov/CBS News+1548 · LVNEUTRAL—+1.6aligned41 · 49
Jun 23, 22YouGov/UT1,200 · RVNEUTRAL——39 · 45
Jun 23, 22YouGov/PerryUndem+12,000 · RVNEUTRAL——43 · 47
Jun 12, 22Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,257 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned43 · 48
Jun 9, 22Blueprint Polling603 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean37 · 56
May 9, 22UT Tyler+11,232 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean39 · 46
Apr 21, 22YouGov/UT1,200 · RVNEUTRAL——37 · 48
Mar 27, 22YouGov/TXHPF1,139 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 50
Mar 19, 22Texas Lyceum926 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 42
Feb 21, 22Emerson College+11,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 52
Feb 14, 22UT Tyler+11,188 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean38 · 45
Feb 8, 22Climate Nexus806 · LVNEUTRAL——40 · 45
Feb 6, 22YouGov/UT1,200 · RVNEUTRAL——37 · 47
Jan 24, 22UT Tyler+11,072 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean36 · 47
Jan 23, 22YouGov/UH— · unknownNEUTRAL——43 · 48
Dec 5, 21Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,224 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned37 · 52
Nov 15, 21UT Tyler+11,106 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean39 · 45
Nov 15, 21UT Tyler+11,106 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean26 · 37
Nov 15, 21UT Tyler+11,106 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean35
Nov 8, 21Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies884 · RVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned39 · 40
Oct 30, 21YouGov/UT/TT+1For · The Texas Tribune1,200 · RVNEUTRAL——37 · 46
Oct 26, 21YouGov/TXHPF1,402 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 43
Oct 26, 21YouGov/TXHPF1,402 · RVNEUTRAL——37 · 40
Sep 26, 21Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University863 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned42
Sep 13, 21UT Tyler+11,148 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean37 · 42
Sep 13, 21UT Tyler+11,148 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean35
Jun 28, 21UT Tyler+11,090 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean33 · 45
Jun 28, 21UT Tyler+11,090 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean39
Jun 20, 21Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,099 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned46
Jun 16, 21Public Opinion Strategies+2For · CBS News800 · LVNEUTRALR +7.33 tracked-2.7r lean42 · 52
Apr 12, 21UT Tyler+11,124 · RVNEUTRAL—+9.4d lean33
Sep 21, 20Data for Progress+1726 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46
· 70 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 16 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
Abbott · 100%16
RGreg Abbott16 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials9
Federal 4State 4Local 1
Organizations3
Other3
Celebrity1
DBeto O'Rourke0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMatthew McConaughey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R3
Safe R2
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Mar 3
Elections Daily
Likely R
Nov 6
538
Safe R
Sep 20
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified54 / 70deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks