Races · Governor · 2022 · SD
Governor · open seat

Jamie Smith vs Kristi Noem

← SC Governor TN Governor →
Safe R — · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1297d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/21/2022Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1500—LV
1297d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 1297d old
    Poll was fielded 1297 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,500
    Sample size of 1,500 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Kristi Noem 56.0 · Jamie Smith 37.0pollarch
10/10/2022South Dakota State University1.00—565—RV
no scored polls1308d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1308d old
    Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Kristi Noem 45.0 · Jamie Smith 41.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 7 total
Kristi Noem (R)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 7 ]
  • Dusty Johnson — U.S. representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2019–present) [ 8 ]
  • Marty Jackley — former attorney general of South Dakota (2009–2019) and candidate for Governor of South Dakota in 2018 [ 9 ]
Other (4)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Mar 4 — -18.0 —
Elections Daily Safe R Nov 7 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Oct 5 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 4 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Jan 26 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (10/21/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (4 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe R via pvi held 1286d
  • 10/25/2022 Likely R R+11.5 via polls held 7d
  • 10/18/2022 Lean R R+4.0 via polls held 99d
  • 7/11/2022 Safe R via pvi