Races · Governor · 2022 · Rhode Island
Governor · open seat
Dan McKee vs Ashley Kalus
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.1 (10th pctile) to D+36.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.1
80% CI: D +12.1 → D +36.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+19.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | Suffolk University+2For · The Boston Globe | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 46 · 36 |
| Oct 2 | Suffolk University | 800 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 36 |
| Oct 1 | Fleming & Associates | 402 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +5.53 tracked | -3.2r lean | 45 · 32 |
| Sep 30 | Fleming & Associates | 402 · unknown | NEUTRAL | R +5.53 tracked | -3.2r lean | 32 |
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+2 | 373 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 51 · 28 |
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+2 | 373 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 53 · 25 |
Endorsements · 57 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet57
Endorsements tracked
Dan McKee57 · 100%
Ashley Kalus0 · 0%
Total57
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDan McKee57 endorsers
Most notable · Andrew Yang · entrepreneur, founder of Venture for America, Democratic candidate for president of the United States in 2020 and for mayor of New York City in 2021 (Independent)
Elected officials35
Federal 5State 20Local 8
Elected officials · 35
- Andrew Yang · entrepreneur, founder of Venture for America, Democratic candidate for president of the United States in 2020 and for mayor of New York City in 2021 (Independent)
- John Edwards · state representative from the 70th district and former Majority Whip of the Rhode Island House of Representatives
- Grace Diaz · state representative from the 11th district and former acting chair of the Rhode Island Democratic Party
- Joe Shekarchi · speaker of the Rhode Island House of Representatives
- Nancy Pelosi · 52nd Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2019–2023) and U.S. representative for California's 12th congressional district (1987–present)
- Sabina Matos · lieutenant governor of Rhode Island
- Alana DiMario · state senator from the 36th district
- Bernie Sanders · U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) and candidate for president in 2016 and 2020 (Independent)
- Bridget Valverde · state senator from the 35th district
- Cynthia Mendes · state senator from the 18th district
- Jim Seveney · state senator from the 11th district
- Maryellen Goodwin · state senator from the 1st district
- Meghan Kallman · state senator from the 15th district
- Myrth York · former state senator
- state senator · ud" Cicilline, former state senator
- Carol Hagan McEntee · state representative from the 33rd district
- Cumberland · r, mayor of Cumberland
- Dominick Ruggerio · president of the Rhode Island Senate
- Joe Polisena · mayor of Johnston
- Jorge Elorza · mayor of Providence
- Joseph Almeida · former state representative from the 12th district
- Karen Alzate · state representative from the 60th district
- Lauren Carson · state representative from the 75th district
- Leonela Felix · state representative from the 61st district
- Mary Messier · state representative from the 62nd district
- Newport · arie Napolitano, mayor of Newport
- North Providence · mayor of North Providence
- Patrick J. Kennedy · former U.S. representative for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district (1995–2011)
- Pawtucket · en, mayor of Pawtucket
- Rebecca Kislak · state representative from the 4th district
- Roberto DaSilva · mayor of East Providence
- Susan Donovan · state representative from the 69th district
- Terri-Denise Cortvriend · state representative from the 72nd district
- Woonsocket · lli-Hunt, mayor of Woonsocket
- state representative · representative from the 67th district
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- AFL–CIO · sland AFL–CIO
- Amalgamated Transit Union
- Democratic Governors Association
- Forward Party
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 99
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 251
- LiUNA · RI Laborers’ District Council
- National Education Association · Rhode Island
- Rhode Island Democratic Party
- Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals
- United Auto Workers · Region 9A
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 328
Other8
Other · 8
- Bristol · Contente, Bristol town administrator (Independent)
- Clean Water Action · Rhode Island
- EMILY's List
- Latino Victory
- Lincoln · uld, Lincoln town administrator (Independent)
- SEIU · 1199 New England
- United Nurses and Allied Professionals
- United Steelworkers · Local 12431
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Nicole Alexander-Scott · former director of the Rhode Island Department of Health (2015–2022)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Boston Globe
RAshley Kalus0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMDaniel J. McKee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJonathan Riccitelli0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 3
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- Elections Daily · Nov 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 25
The Cook Political Report
Safe DElections Daily
Likely D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks