Races · Governor · 2022 · RI
Governor · open seat

Dan McKee vs Ashley Kalus

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Likely D — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1314d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/4/2022Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)800—LV
1314d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 1314d old
    Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Boston Globe
    Commissioned by The Boston Globe, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Dan McKee 46.0 · Ashley Kalus 36.0pollarch
10/2/2022Fleming & Associates0.73—(R+5.5)402—LV
3 scored polls1316d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1316d old
    Poll was fielded 1316 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Dan McKee 45.0 · Ashley Kalus 32.0pollarch
9/7/2022Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)373—LV
n=3731341d old+3
  • n=373
    Sample size of 373 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.1pt — wider than typical.
  • 1341d old
    Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Dan McKee 51.0 · Ashley Kalus 28.0pollarch
9/7/2022Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)373—LV
n=3731341d old+3
  • n=373
    Sample size of 373 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.1pt — wider than typical.
  • 1341d old
    Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Dan McKee 53.0 · Jonathan Riccitelli 25.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 63 total
Dan McKee (D)
63 endorsements · source
Elected officials (35)
  • Alana DiMario — state senator from the 36th district [ 28 ]
  • Andrew Yang — entrepreneur, founder of Venture for America , Democratic candidate for president of the United States in 2020 and for mayor of New York City in 2021 (Independent) [ 45 ]
  • Bernie Sanders — U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) and candidate for president in 2016 and 2020 (Independent) [ 20 ]
  • Bridget Valverde — state senator from the 35th district [ 28 ]
  • Carol Hagan McEntee — state representative from the 33rd district [ 28 ]
  • Cumberland — r, mayor of Cumberland [ 34 ]
  • Cynthia Mendes — state senator from the 18th district [ 21 ]
  • Dominick Ruggerio — president of the Rhode Island Senate [ 34 ]
  • Grace Diaz — state representative from the 11th district and former acting chair of the Rhode Island Democratic Party [ 28 ]
  • Jim Seveney — state senator from the 11th district [ 28 ]
  • Joe Polisena — mayor of Johnston [ 36 ]
  • Joe Shekarchi — speaker of the Rhode Island House of Representatives [ 35 ]
  • John Edwards — state representative from the 70th district and former Majority Whip of the Rhode Island House of Representatives [ 28 ]
  • Jorge Elorza — mayor of Providence [ 25 ]
  • Joseph Almeida — former state representative from the 12th district [ 25 ]
  • Karen Alzate — state representative from the 60th district [ 28 ]
  • Lauren Carson — state representative from the 75th district [ 28 ]
  • Leonela Felix — state representative from the 61st district [ 28 ]
  • Mary Messier — state representative from the 62nd district [ 28 ]
  • Maryellen Goodwin — state senator from the 1st district [ 25 ]
  • Meghan Kallman — state senator from the 15th district [ 28 ]
  • Myrth York — former state senator [ 28 ]
  • Nancy Pelosi — 52nd Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2019–2023) and U.S. representative for California's 12th congressional district (1987–present) [ 24 ]
  • Newport — arie Napolitano, mayor of Newport [ 34 ]
  • North Providence — mayor of North Providence [ 36 ]
  • Patrick J. Kennedy — former U.S. representative for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district (1995–2011) [ 22 ] [ 23 ]
  • Pawtucket — en, mayor of Pawtucket [ 36 ]
  • Rebecca Kislak — state representative from the 4th district [ 28 ]
  • Roberto DaSilva — mayor of East Providence [ 33 ]
  • Sabina Matos — lieutenant governor of Rhode Island [ 33 ]
  • Susan Donovan — state representative from the 69th district [ 28 ]
  • Terri-Denise Cortvriend — state representative from the 72nd district [ 28 ]
  • Woonsocket — lli-Hunt, mayor of Woonsocket [ 36 ]
  • state representative — representative from the 67th district [ 28 ]
  • state senator — ud" Cicilline, former state senator [ 28 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • The Boston Globe — [ 27 ]
Organizations / unions (14)
  • AFL–CIO — sland AFL–CIO [ 42 ]
  • Amalgamated Transit Union — [ 39 ]
  • Democratic Governors Association — [ 37 ]
  • Forward Party — [ 45 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — Local 99 [ 40 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters — Local 251 [ 41 ]
  • LiUNA — RI Laborers’ District Council [ 34 ]
  • National Education Association — Rhode Island [ 42 ]
  • Rhode Island Democratic Party — [ 38 ]
  • Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals — [ 29 ]
  • United Auto Workers — Region 9A [ 43 ]
  • United Food and Commercial Workers — Local 328 [ 31 ]
  • [ 28 ] — Island Democratic Women’s Caucus [ 28 ]
  • [ 34 ] — te Association of Fire Fighters [ 34 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Nicole Alexander-Scott — former director of the Rhode Island Department of Health (2015–2022) [ 26 ]
Other (12)
  • 20 — 30%
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • Bristol — Contente, Bristol town administrator [ 36 ] (Independent)
  • Clean Water Action — Rhode Island [ 29 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 30 ]
  • Latino Victory — [ 29 ]
  • Lincoln — uld, Lincoln town administrator [ 36 ] (Independent)
  • SEIU — 1199 New England [ 28 ]
  • United Nurses and Allied Professionals — [ 44 ]
  • United Steelworkers — Local 12431 [ 32 ]
  • [ 29 ] — ociation of Dem City and Town Chairs [ 29 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 4 — +18.0 —
Elections Daily Likely D Nov 7 — +9.0 —
538 Safe D Jun 30 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Mar 4 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Jan 26 — +9.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 44 months ago (10/4/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D via pvi held 1332d
  • 9/9/2022 Safe D D+25.5 via polls held 60d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D via pvi