Races · Governor · 2022 · Oregon

Governor · open seat

Tina Kotek vs Christine Drazan

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Tilt DD +0.8 forecast· 31 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
55% Kotek (D)
45% Drazan (R)
Win probability
Tina Kotek55% (D)
Christine Drazan45% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +0.8
80% CIR+11.2 → D+12.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +0.8 · 80% CI R+11.2 → D+12.8
Actual result D+3.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 55% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+0.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.2 (10th pctile) to D+12.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 55% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +0.8

80% CI: R +11.2 → D +12.8 · win prob 55%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	31
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+3.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
510152025303540455055KOTEK 41.7DRAZAN 40.7JOHNSON 10.3MAY '22AUG '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 31 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 5	Data for Progress+1	1,393 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 44
Oct 31	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	975 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	44 · 40
Oct 31	Nelson Research	577 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 45
Oct 31	Blueprint Polling	585 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.4d lean	45 · 41
Oct 31	Nelson Research	577 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 45
Oct 28	Blueprint Polling	585 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	+2.4d lean	45 · 41
Oct 25	FM3 Research+1	741 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-9.6noisy	40 · 38
Oct 24	FM3 Research	741 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	-9.6noisy	40 · 38
Oct 21	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,161 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	40 · 42
Oct 19	Trafalgar Group	1,161 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	40 · 42
Oct 17	Hoffman Research Group	684 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	35 · 37
Oct 17	Data for Progress+1	1,021 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	42 · 43
Oct 17	CiviqsFor · Civiqs	804 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.522 tracked	+4.0d lean	47 · 39
Oct 16	Hoffman Research Group	684 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	35 · 37
Oct 12	GBAO+1For · Tina for Oregon	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+9.3d lean	40 · 38
Oct 11	GBAO	800 · unknown	D-LEAN	—	+9.3d lean	40 · 38
Oct 8	Clout Research	842 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	38 · 44
Oct 7	Clout Research	842 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	38 · 44
Sep 30	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	796 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	34 · 36
Sep 25	Clout Research	422 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	35 · 39
Sep 25	Clout Research	422 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	47 · 53
Sep 24	Clout Research	422 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	35 · 39
Sep 23	DHM Research	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 32
Sep 22	DHM Research	600 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 32
Sep 19	Nelson Research	620 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	32 · 33
Sep 18	Nelson Research	620 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	32 · 33
Aug 13	Clout Research+1	397 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	32 · 33
Jun 29	Cygnal	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	31 · 32
Jun 28	GS Strategy Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	33 · 23
May 26	Nelson Research	516 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	28 · 30
Jan 21	DHM Research	400 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	—

· 31 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 38 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

30Kotek · 79%
Drazan · 21%8
Endorsements tracked
Tina Kotek30 · 79%
Christine Drazan8 · 21%
Total38
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DTina Kotek30 endorsers

Most notable · Barbara Roberts · former governor of Oregon (1991–1995)

Other15

Organizations10

Elected officials3

Federal 1State 2Local 0

Celebrity1

Newspapers1

RChristine Drazan8 endorsers

Most notable · Bev Clarno · former Oregon secretary of state (2019–2021)

Other4

Celebrity1

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Newspapers1

Organizations1

IBetsy Johnson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D3

Tossup2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Sep 15

Elections Daily

Lean D

Nov 6

538

Lean D

Nov 7

Inside Elections

Tossup

Oct 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified20 / 31deterministic

Polls flagged1needs review

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements38 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks